Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
OK, can you do the math for me to defend your side?
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You know this, but there's no empirical formula here on either side, it's just rough forecasting based on circumstances and opinion. The point of the future wager is to get significantly better odds than you think are likely on Derby day. I think El Areeb has a reasonable chance to win his next two preps convincingly, in which case he'll likely be a third of his future odds or less in the Derby. If you think he has a 2% chance to win the Derby, I just disagree.
I agree with you that future wagers in general are a bad bet, but this stuck out to me as one that may not be, considering my positive opinion of the horse and the favorable circumstances surrounding his path to the Derby.