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Originally Posted by cmorioles
What is incorrect is that you need to build in some kind of variant to get any kind of useful pars. Horses are more consistent than track conditions. If you look at the history of horses that run well in a race, the pace and final time, as well as the pace and final times of other races on the card, you are going to come up with much better numbers than you will using pars.
Quick question...what figure did you give Invasor's BC Classic, and what figure did you give Magna Graduate a few weeks ago on the inner dirt?
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Invasor: a 124 on my figures, 1 point = 1 length (which works out to approximately a 113 Beyer.) He had run a 126 (Suburban) and a 125 (Whitney) in his previous two, Bernardini had run a 124 (Jim Dandy), 124 (Travers), and a 122 (JCGC). Premium Tap had run a 117 (mini-stake against SK), 118 (Whitney), 119 (Woodward). Note: I was very happy with this number, as Premium Tap ran a 120 in the Clark.
Magna Graduate: A 118 (about a 103 Beyer). Obviously the BC day CD race was a throwout for comparison purposes but his one other race I have in the database was a 119 (the Discovery.)