What is incorrect is that you need to build in some kind of variant to get any kind of useful pars. Horses are more consistent than track conditions. If you look at the history of horses that run well in a race, the pace and final time, as well as the pace and final times of other races on the card, you are going to come up with much better numbers than you will using pars.
Quick question...what figure did you give Invasor's BC Classic, and what figure did you give Magna Graduate a few weeks ago on the inner dirt?
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