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Originally Posted by cmorioles
This isn't opinion, I don't know any serious figure maker that relies on pars. What one do you know that does?
About the only time I could think of using pars would be lightly raced horses or first time starters, things like that. Even then, you try to avoid those races if at all possible as part of making the variant.
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Myself... for example, the par time for an older 20K claimer on the AQU inner track is 1:11.16 over the last 5 years (with a boatload of datapoints). Fact. What is incorrect about using this information to your advantage?? I'd rather calculate a variant, if possible, on what DID happen rather than what SHOULD have happened. I have firm reservations against the projection method. It allows human nature to "prove yourself correct" by matching the figures from previous races...