Yes, Found has a legit chance to win the Classic. You just can't throw out a horse with her class and proven ability to win, trained by a world class trainer.
That said, she will not be used to any great extent on any of my win tickets. I frankly think that she has a much better chance of repeating last year's win in the Turf, her preferred surface, than of beating one of the best dirt horses in the world on his preferred surface at his preferred distance.
Found has amassed over $7,000,000 of winnings, but not one $ of that has been earned on the dirt. I would worry that a win bet on her is a guess that she will like the dirt and will also fit the likely race shape. She seems to prefer to run well back, stay covered up, and then unleash a very strong closing burst at the end. That fits the profile of the very classiest turf runners, but she might be left with too much to do in a typical 1 1/4 dirt race that will have a faster pace than she is used to. On top of that, I think she will get a lot of play based on connections and reputation, and won't offer the sort of value need for a horse trying something for the first time. But, that's just me. If she wins, I'll applaud a wonderful training job of a great horse.
My dilemma in the Classic is what to make of Arrogate's amazing performance in the Travers. You just don't beat that strong a field in track record time without having lots of talent. But, is he going to be able to duplicate that effort against a horse who has run that type of race on a number of occasions, or will he regress from his Travers effort just a little?
In a horizontal ticket, I'd use both Arrogate and Found heavily underneath, but only sparingly on top, with a bit more on Arrrogate than Found.
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