[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by todko

I should have re-stated and said "all track variants are a fraud"

It is iffy enough to judge a variant in the early races of a card by assessing times versus pars for that class. To conclude that "the track is slow" because 10k claimers ran +.5 at 6f in the first two races on the card is a huge mistake. Maybe the first two races just had weak fields or even full fields. Later a horse goes -.5 in a race with a short field (no traffic) and the horse gets a stunning speed fig.

It is even more iffy to split the track variant. The first 4 races get a certain variant and then the last 4 get a different variant? The track changes drastically between races 4 and 5 but not between races 1 and 2 or races 8 and 9? Gimme a break.

Dirt changes. Nobody is arguing that. It changes every time the water trucks run on it. And not only because of the water -- also because the weight of the trucks compress the track and produce fast lanes. How much do you think a full water truck weighs?

Throw in rain, wind, different field sizes, time spent stalled in the gate while horses refuse to load . . . you name it.

Like I said, any time an independent variable (track variant) is indeterminate then the dependent variable (speed figure) is also indeterminate.

I've often went up against speed figure handicappers at the local tracks. I worked off raw running times, trips, pedigrees . . . the speed figures were taped over so I couldn't see them. I always won. Try it. It will improve your handicapping. Put a piece of tape over the speed figure column on your pps. You'll find yourself taking a lot closer look -- at the fractions, trip, class, pedigree, and chart caller's comments than you will if you remain corrupted by the Beyer speed figs.

Don't get caught up in the hype. Don't be a Bernardinian.

You definitely have the right idea. If someone has absolutely no idea how to make variants and speed figures, they shouldn't use them. Heady move on your part as you definitely fit into this category.