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Originally Posted by Dixie Porter
Last time:
Do NOT throw out races.
Do NOT draw a line through a race.
BELIEVE your eyes.
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Sometimes you have to. The eyes DO deceive sometimes. Let's say today's race is a sprint on a dry track. If the last race was in slop, or routing or on grass, its irrelevant. What if the horse was racing 5 wide against a strong rail bias? Or a horse finished badly because it dueled hard for 6f (i.e. Principle Secret)? Go strictly by the last race and you end up on too many underlays.
BTW, Principle Secret isn't the only California horse who's run poorly in another state w/out race day Bute.