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Originally Posted by SentToStud
Many of the people on this post deriding this colt's effort as well as generalizing that early 2yo sprints are simply just speedfests obviously did not see the race. Coming into the race off just two very modest reported works, this colt broke last and really just loped his way to within 2-3 lengths of the leaders at the 1/4 pole. When the straightend out and he changed leads, he ran tremendously quick for about 1/8 of a mile. Beajarano had him wrapped up the final 100-150 yards and he still finished up in very quick timeHe was obviously ready to run and run well. Whether or not he makes noise next spring is really not important, at least to me, since so many things can happen between now and then. I also think that Pletcher is probably a very good judge of what's best for his horse and I cannot imagine he'd run this colt -- or any horse for that matter -- too soon or too often. I just really enjoyed seeing an obviously talented 2yo win off so impressively easy and look forward to seeing him again against tougher competition.
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Stud. upon reading Picking Winners by Andy beyer back in my young teens in the 80's I immediately embraced the concept of watching races and taking trip and bias notes. What Beyer said just clicked with me. The concept that not all the things that happen in a trip can be posted in a little running line seemed to make sense to me. Therefore the people I respect most in this game are folks like yourself who also watch races before they comment on anything. It became really clear to me once again that most people here don't watch races and comment on things that they haven't even seen, which to be is incredulous. I would no sooner comment on the performance of a pitcher in a baseball game that I didn't watch than I would on a nuclear physics equation.
The point yesterday wasn't what he will do 11 months from now, the point was that anyone who watches races and understands internal fractions had to be like you and I were, amazed. I've been watching races hardcore for 20 years and That debut was in the top three I ever saw. Personal Ensign's debut will never be topped in my mind, I knew that first start that she was agonna be the greatest filly I would ever see. I wish they had that race on archives someplace but i remember it like it was yesterday. That debut was the kind that just make you feel like you could be watching a very serious potential star.
I'm usually the guy bashing horses at age two after big debuts because they usually fall into one of twoi categories, horses who close late running down fast fractions who really don't wanna stretch out but have given the false impression that they do because they "closed" into a :26 last quarter(which isn't really a close so much as it is the horse in front of them stopped) or horses who go in 21 and change and 44 and change. I mean those kind NEVER stretch out and I mean NEVER. Simply because horses that fast never do. But this debut was didnt fall into either category. Though he was back in the field the fractions were hot enough to mean that hes got enough speed to stay close(and will be closer the longer they go) yet the way he powered home while switching leads very late show me that he WILL stretch. Watch where he switches leads, two strides after that he was just gone. The final 3'16ths went in 17:3 and since he closed he got right around 17 flat, or a shade underneath which meant his kick home was INCREDIBLE and since the final time itself was so fast it makes that last 3/16th's just astonishing. I didn't see a debut like that last year by anyone, heck I don't know when the last time was that i saw a debut like that.