While weight certainly has some impact, it is almost impossible to measure it with any kind or accuracy as it applies to a given horse. Also, the top-weight horse in a race wins far more than the low-weighted horse, so I agree with Gander and many others who believe it is the most overrated factor in handicapping- almost to the point where I all but disregard it in my analysis.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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