So the Santa Anita meet ended yesterday, and while it wasn't nearly as exciting for me as the winter-spring edition, it was still quite the battle that came down to the last day. Only three players managed to make 19 perfect show selections put of 3149 who got at least one correct through the course of the meeting. Congrats to rodrodman who won by the narrowest of margins, being tied in both show streak and total wins, and winning the second tiebreak, total places, by only one. Tough beat for deadeye who lost by only one place spot, hopefully Santa Anita offers a consolation prize to ease the pain somewhat.
I decided once again to break down the odds-on favorites by field size, a total of 35 horses were odds-on favorites, and 28 of them finished in the money, for a success rate of only 80%. Here is the breakdown by field size:
field size ITM% #of applicable horses
13 0 1
12 100 3
10 100 2
9 75 4
8 100 6
7 83.3 6
6 71.4 7
5 66.7 6
So it's too small a sample size to really be meaningful but it was interesting that the horse Wade, who was 3-5 in the 13 horse nightcap on Columbus day, became the first odds-on favorite of the entire calendar year to finish off the board in a 12 or 13 horse field. And that other than the 9-horse fields, horses were actually more likely to come in as the field size grew.
|