[ateamstupid]

1st: #2 Whats Up Big Guy is the horse to beat on paper, as anything close to his last effort will win this race. But that was a freakish effort in the slop and I have to see him repeat it on a dry track before I trust him at a short price. #5 Four Directions' best races have come at Belmont and he's taking a big drop today. His lack of speed is a concern, but he's logical here figure-wise. Those seem like the main two. I'll include #7 Sounds of Saratoga for a percolating barn as his race two-back was decent and perhaps he developed some from 3 to 4. He also draws well and shows up with a best-of-38 solo work on the tab.

A: 2,5
B: 7

2nd: Nothing clever to say about this race. #5 Cleancut Kid and #6 S'maverlous were 2nd and 4th against tougher foes last time and both ran big. They just lay over this field. #3 Power Crazed is the only other horse who can win with his best race on paper, but it's disheartening how quickly the Wests and Wayne Catalano gave up on him and he barely got it done at 3-10 when claimed last out by a cold barn.

A: 5,6
B: none
C: 3

3rd: Jeez, #2 Neilinger, #7 May Flowers and #8 Groovy A might be OK turf sprinters if they could just get away from each other. At least two of the three fried each other both 5/1 and 5/23 at BEL and the latter two were victims of tough late rundowns. They both have to be A's. #6 Swaggy is very interesting for the always dangerous Jimmy Toner with some sharp works on the tab for her debut. By Scat Daddy out of an unraced Smart Strike mare, she's bred to just eat up the turf. Big shot at a likely square price. #1 Clara Kelly has to be used defensively, but she has been a huge disappointment three times at short prices for Chad Brown thus far and you're likely to get another underlay today.

A: 6,7,8
B: 1
C: 4

4th: This is a difficult race, because if #1 Special Selection runs back to his last effort, which was a career-best performance -- albeit with a good trip -- at a distance that's likely shorter than his best and now he stretches out to seven furlongs? Good luck to the competition. If he doesn't come back with that kind of race though, this becomes a much more wide open puzzle. #5 Bluegrass Chat looks like a big threat to go wire-to-wire or thereabouts under Lezcano, though it's a legit concern that he's never raced in NY before. #6 All About Yasom has to be respected to get Joe Orseno off the duck. He appears to be a six-furlong-and-under specialist, but his two-turn race at Gulfstream wasn't that bad with a wide trip under a lesser rider. My feeling is if Special Selection is going to lose, it's probably not going to be to one of the horses he dusted last time.

A: 1
B: 5,6

5th: She's no great shakes, but #7 Yourcreditisgood has to be considered the clear horse to beat in this race off of dirt form. Her last two dry dirt efforts, 4/30 and 1/22, were both clearly the best dirt races anyone in this field has run. She is 0-for-10 and goes out for the aforementioned cold Orseno barn, but she is the one to down. #9 Bay's Nanny is worth using because, why the hell not? This is a poor field, she's bred to be OK and once upon a time cost $65k as a 2YO in training. There are big gaps in her worktab, but Carlos Martin can have a firster ready off spotty works. #11 Winter Wish's two dirt races have been sabotaged by her poor breaking habits, but at least she draws outside with a long run to the turn so she can ease herself into the race if she misses the break again. It's really tough to make a strong case for anyone else in this field, so if I can get live to 7, 9 and 11, I'll live with that.

A: 7,11
B: 9

2,5,7/5,6/1,6,7,8/1,5,6/7,9,11 = 108
2,5/5,6/6,7,8/1/7,11 = 12
2,5/3/6,7,8/1/7,11 = 6
2,5/5,6/4/1/7,11 = 4

130 total

G/L!