I'd put his chances at about 20%. Other than Materiality it doesn't appear (at this point) to be much speed in the race (though maybe Carpe Diem shows more). We do still have three weeks so who knows who ends up showing up. I think 20% means he has a huge chance of winning but it's still a long way out and anyway I'll be playing against the potential triple crown aspirant. I do think, after last year, Victor puts him on the lead and we'll see how long he lasts. I'm sure he'll get run down late, maybe he doesn't even hit the board, but, still, who cares. The important part for the game is that he makes it there in tact (knock on wood). It's going to be a great day...and if he does win it...well, ****, it's going to be nuts and rightfully so.
As for the crop suddenly being subpar, that's just embarrassing. I was pumped to see Firing Line and Dortmund throw down with AP in the stretch again but clearly Mother Nature was rooting for the Pharaoh. (Tale of Verve won't finish anywhere near the board in the Belmont) Anyway, they'll regroup and win there share of races. Hopefully we see them back at in the summer/fall. (Calling it now, Dortmund will win the Haskell) I still think this crop is one of the best we've seen and wouldn't be surprised if those two have something to say in the BCC at the end of the year.
Don't get caught up in the time. It doesn't mean anything. That race was fantastic today! Just what we needed. Thank God AP handled the slop. On to Belmont...where Frosted will win, spoiling another crown bid...but who cares. All that matters is that we head to Belmont with the chance. The result is irrelevant.
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