Quote:
Originally Posted by ranger5830
Thanks all for the kind words, I appreciate it very much.
Some of you might be wondering why I didn't take the 2-5 Baffert maiden Wolf Man Rocket that was the obvious pick of the day, if I could find a good alternative to the big favorite I always tried to do so, as if they run out you make big moves on the leaderboard. After all there are at least 24 different correct answers every day.
A friend at work who has been following along with me asked if I considered taking the day off Sunday, and the answer is no, I'm happy with the pick I made, it just didn't work out. I had a 2-1 shot that had a clear lead in a 6-horse field at Santa Anita, those will usually yield a good result, plus the horse fit the profile of horses that I have picked with great success, E-E/P horses in dirt sprints with an outside post. It just happened this one didn't wasn't successful.
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That was an amazing run. Congrats!
I think your strategy of looking for an alternative to the big fav is solid in the early parts of the tournament, or if you're trailing. But once you've got a big lead, it makes more sense to me to simply take the horse you think has the best chance. Force those behind you to pick the 2nd best horse of the day in hopes of gaining on you.
That said, I think you've got a great chance of winning the thing. Nice work!
--Dunbar