Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny rotten
Each Derby is its own seperate puzzle, in my estimation. As such, I try to keep an open mind when analyzing it. A look at some recent winners:
Cal Chrome- breaks 52 year old CA bred drought
I'll Have Another- Basically trained up to SA Derby off of one race in February
Animal Kingdom-Unproven on dirt
Mine That Bird- Don't know where to start here
Big Brown 3 starts total leading to Derby
Funnycide- NY bred AND a Gelding!!!
It seems like each year another Derby rule or regulation goes by the wayside,so I like to treat each horse as an individual.
None the less very interesting stast you have there.I actually cashed that odd ball field field Revolution exacta and last year I had the field for all of the wrong reasons, most notably faith in Ria Antonia last year,to complete exacta with Cal Chrome.
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I think that is what makes this game so great, everyone has their own approach. On day to day races I apply basic handicapping skills, trainer angles and course specific stats. But, on for major races I really enjoy historical stats, esp. high percentage ones that can produce a positive ROI. For me, this is never more true than in the Derby. For instance, 4 of the 6 horses you listed all ran above the average running time in their last race prior to the Kentucky Derby. In the last 21 years (that's as far as my database goes back), 67% (14 of 21) of the Derby winners have shared that same stat. Those runners have produced a +20% ROI.
I really believe using The Field in the Exacta Future Wager is a great saver bet. It allows to cover a lot of combinations that you may not want to spend money to cover on Derby day for a fraction of the cost. And like you said, sometimes you end up hitting for all the wrong reasons.