Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
That's rough.. Discussed this with Fornatale yesterday on ATR (and Tuesday Night on the Night School Contest segment with him and Chamblin). The NHC recognizes the random aspect of the "walk off home run'' but maintains that the leap froggers still needed to be in striking distance to nab top finishes.
Is the lock down/pick and pray format the solution to alleviate the Hail Mary finishes? Or how about the first half of the slate a post time decision with a lock down for the second half?
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I was extremely upset right after it happened, mostly because I thought I had a spot locked up based on points, and maybe had a chance to auto-qualify. The horse wasn't really too much of stab if you looked at his PP's. In reality, its more of a surprise that he was 22-1 and not 12-1. I actually would have been better off to be in 30th or so cause I would have played it too. At any rate, that was the first time I was in that situation so late in a live contest. What I should have done was calculated the minimum odds I needed in order to get points. So I was $20 ahead of the 25th place guy, so that means I should have started my search with horses 7-1 or greater. The race went off with 4 horses in that range. One was a total toss, but I would have narrowed my selection process down to 3 entries.
Anyway, lesson learned. Obviously in a situation where you are trying to win the contest, my strategy isn't the best, but it this point, I just need to finish in the top 10% one more time. I fell to 149 this week with the new standings, so I was jumped by 2 people.