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Search: Posts Made By: Dunbar
Forum: Stakes Archive 08-04-2019, 07:39 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 294
Posted By Dunbar
...

...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 05-04-2019, 09:07 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 573
Posted By Dunbar
Thanks. You can use a horse's exacta odds to...

Thanks.

You can use a horse's exacta odds to construct the equivalent of a win bet. The odds you get that way will usually be lower than that horse's actual win odds because of the bigger takeout...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 05-04-2019, 07:59 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 573
Posted By Dunbar
It's true that there's more room for noise with a...

It's true that there's more room for noise with a long shot having won the Oaks, but there's a lot of data in the exacta pool, and it's pretty convincing that Game Winner will not be in the top 2 in...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 05-04-2019, 06:00 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 573
Posted By Dunbar
With $1 million in the win pool, Maximum Security...

With $1 million in the win pool, Maximum Security is still a narrow favorite over Improbable and Tacitus. From the Oaks/Derby will-pays and the current exacta will pays, with $720K in the exacta...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 05-02-2019, 02:05 PM
Replies: 100
Views: 5,341
Posted By Dunbar
Too funny, philski. I just did a search, and we...

Too funny, philski. I just did a search, and we had a very similar discussion about a poor Derby ML almost exactly 11 years ago!

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22079

Has...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 05-02-2019, 07:41 AM
Replies: 100
Views: 5,341
Posted By Dunbar
philcski, that 138% (the total of implied...

philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at...
Forum: Stakes Archive 03-18-2019, 02:03 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 402
Posted By Dunbar
I think cakes was commenting on the fact that the...

I think cakes was commenting on the fact that the slower race earned the faster BSF.
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 02-11-2019, 09:55 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,015
Posted By Dunbar
And here's a link to the "$2 Exacta Probables",...

And here's a link to the "$2 Exacta Probables", which are, in fact, the 'odds-to-1'. So, the figures in the table are roughly half the actual $2 exacta payoffs....
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 02-11-2019, 12:08 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,015
Posted By Dunbar
Here's a link to the final win odds and...

Here's a link to the final win odds and will-pays:

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/20190210-KDFW-Final-Odds-Pool-2.pdf
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 02-09-2019, 12:58 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,015
Posted By Dunbar
Careful, someone could take you up on that, then...

Careful, someone could take you up on that, then bet $50K on Coliseum in the last few seconds and have a sweet arbitrage! :)
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 02-06-2019, 09:19 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,015
Posted By Dunbar
2/8-10 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager ~ Pool 2

KENTUCKY DERBY 145 FUTURE WAGER

No. Horse Morning Line

1. Bourbon War 50-1
2. Coliseum 15-1
3. Game Winner 6-1
4. Global Campaign 50-1
5. Gray Attempt 50-1
6. Gunmetal Gray 20-1
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 11-20-2018, 09:19 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 694
Posted By Dunbar
The "Any filly" is something new.

The "Any filly" is something new.
Forum: Breeders' Cup Archive 11-05-2018, 06:46 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,137
Posted By Dunbar
Lowest BSF ever for a Distaff.

Lowest BSF ever for a Distaff.
Forum: Breeders' Cup Archive 11-03-2018, 07:01 AM
Replies: 39
Views: 1,235
Posted By Dunbar
Agree! And with extra applause for "ive won...

Agree! And with extra applause for "ive won already in life"!
Forum: Breeders' Cup Archive 11-03-2018, 06:05 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 443
Posted By Dunbar
Here are the implied odds from the Juvy/Classic...

Here are the implied odds from the Juvy/Classic will pays:

*Horse, *Morning Line Odds, Implied Odds
*1. Thunder Snow *12-1, 13-1
*2. Roaring Lion *20-1, 21-1
*3. Catholic Boy *8-1, 5-1
*4....
Forum: Breeders' Cup Archive 10-08-2018, 08:34 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 489
Posted By Dunbar
Pool size was $90K for Classic and $22K for the...

Pool size was $90K for Classic and $22K for the Turf.
Forum: Stakes Archive 10-02-2018, 06:15 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 1,323
Posted By Dunbar
:tro::tro:

:tro::tro:
Forum: Stakes Archive 08-19-2018, 10:00 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 918
Posted By Dunbar
Accelerate now owns the 3rd, 4th, and 5th best...

Accelerate now owns the 3rd, 4th, and 5th best distance BSF's of 2018. (Tied for 5th with Diversify.) Only Gun Runner's 120 and West Coast's 117 were bigger than Accelerate's best 3. Impressive...
Forum: Stakes Archive 06-04-2018, 07:07 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,453
Posted By Dunbar
Thanks!

Thanks!
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 05-19-2018, 05:07 AM
Replies: 39
Views: 3,760
Posted By Dunbar
I think Han Solo said it...

I think Han Solo said it better:

https://tenor.com/view/han-solo-never-odds-tell-me-star-wars-gif-4901664
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 05-18-2018, 07:15 AM
Replies: 39
Views: 3,760
Posted By Dunbar
I'm not suggesting that it's a bad bet,...

I'm not suggesting that it's a bad bet, but...There are 40 ways for you to win and 1,640 ways for you to lose.
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 04-27-2018, 03:11 PM
Replies: 182
Views: 25,067
Posted By Dunbar
The Preakness is limited to 14.

The Preakness is limited to 14.
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 04-27-2018, 05:48 AM
Replies: 182
Views: 25,067
Posted By Dunbar
I worry more about a disaster at the first turn. ...

I worry more about a disaster at the first turn. 20 horses are trying to get a position that does not leave them either hopelessly outside or, especially in the case of the inside 3 or 4, squeezed...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 04-20-2018, 07:01 AM
Replies: 182
Views: 25,067
Posted By Dunbar
Mendelssohn scares me. I'm sitting on a hefty...

Mendelssohn scares me. I'm sitting on a hefty "All Others" bet from Future Wager Pool 2 (and a bet 1/5 as big from Pool 3, which I've mentally kissed goodbye). With Justify and Magnum Moon, plus...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 04-16-2018, 09:22 AM
Replies: 182
Views: 25,067
Posted By Dunbar
Quip may pass on the Derby, according to Elliott...

Quip may pass on the Derby, according to Elliott Walden, CEO and racing manager for WinStar Farm, as quoted in Bloodhorse:

"I don't know," Walden said when asked if Quip would be pointed for the...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 258

 
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