Beyers..... I Just Dont Understand Them
 

i will give a few examples of why i dont understand them, and why i think they are totally irrelavant in chosing a horse to wager on..

invasor goes 1 1/4 in 2:02 in the bcc and gets a 116 beyer
discreet cat goes 1 mile in 1:32.2 and gets a 116 beyer

now invasor time for that distance is solid, nothing special though
discreet cat sets a track record and is almost in hand the whole race ...
so how do they both get 116, how dosent discreet cat get something like a 125 beyer ? i just dont understand them.


strong contender in the dwyer last year goes 1 1/16 in 1:45.1 ... now that time does not even have to be considered good that can be considered a slow time he gets a huge beyer of 109, horses go that same distance in 1:42 and dont even get 100 beyer's

i know what track and what distance has something to do with it, but it just dosent make since to me and there are so many other examples i could give.

You are right....you don't understand them.

If you are looking to understand them---reading his books would be a start. It's a fairly simple thing to understand.

They are sometimes subjective. If he bet the horse to win he gives them an extra 10 points if he didn't.. -10

I don't use DRF that often. Too much information on too many pages. I just play for the action anyway

Others on here know more about this than I do but factors such as wind, track depth etc go into them I believe. Maybe one track has a fast surface and one tracks surface is really slow, if a horse at each track were to run the same time at the same distance the horse that ran on the slow track will get the higher #. Although Discreet Cat did get a 116 which is a very good Beyer the track was fast that day. The fact that he was in hand doesn't matter. I look at them as a tool to handicap and nothing else. You certainly shouldn't use them alone. Hopefully this helps a bit.

Wind in itself is NOT factored in except in that it may affect the variant.

As DrugS said.....read his books. They're the best handicapping books out there as far as entertaining reading and information and EVERYBODY who is betting their money is foolish not to at least read " Picking Winners ".

What?

As for Beyer #s....I like them. I haven't read all of his books yet but I have read one and glanced through several others. They are really good. He explains how he determines the numbers and a bunch of other good stuff.
I know a lot of cappers don't use beyer #s but I think they are a fairly useful tool. They aren't magic numbers certainly, but they can be helpful.
As for not looking at the DRF because it has too much information.....well I will just assume you were being sarcastic or something.

Track speed varies from day to day and from track to track and often even changes during the day. On BC Day the BC Sprint was won in 1:08.80 and won by several lengths. On Cigar Mile Day a 6 furlong 2yo maiden race was won in 1:09.26 which means if you want to say both tracks were the same speed then that 2yo maiden coming off a 71 Beyer would have run second in the BC Sprint. Obviously we know that isn't the case which is why seperate track variants are used rather than raw times. Every other race on that card would lead you to the same ridiculous conclusion if you compared it to the BC races so it isn't like this is one isolated case. Beyer and his figure makers do an excellent job of establishing the track speed, the only thing they do that is questionable is split the variant when there isn't a compelling reason to do so. Sometimes they are right to do it and sometimes they are very wrong.

What's nearly totally irrelavant in choosing a horse to wager on is the final raw time. I always say it, but here goes again: Don't use speed figures unless you know what you are looking at. Do yourself a favor and read "Picking Winners" to get the basis of how speed figures are created. There are different methodologies and Beyer himself has improved in the method he laid out in PW, but the idea is the same. The racing surface changes and, thus the times of the races change. Without adjusting by applying a variant, you are being far too simplistic....one more thing to pay particular attention to- learn the figure value of a beaten length for whatever figs you use. 1pt does not = 1 length and the value changes depending on distance.

Two things to add.

First, the numbers can and are adjusted all the time for races in the past. See Magical Ride who was given like a 102 for one of her first races. Now I think they have that race down to like 83 or something. Same race, same guys determining the figure. She was very good that day or so they thought. Subsequently neither her or any of that field have done much, so the number has been adjusted down. A number is just a number.

Secondly, if you only look at the speed figs, you are going to miss important information like: claims, trainer/jock changes, equipment changes, medication changes, layoff angles, etc...

Read the Beyer books, then start to form your own methods for picking winners.

All the time? It is done, but rarely.

Do you think the figure you mention was more accurate at 102 or 83? I think it was obviously wrong early on, so he fixed it. Should he have left it as is knowing the figure was wrong?

T/F,

The number isn't just a number though.. The numbers relate to the numbers earned by the other runners in the race and those numbers are intrinsicly related to the other races and the numbers earned in those events.. Figures are not arbitrary. They are 'made' as part of the picture of how the race track ran during the day.

Cmorioles can address a lot of this.. BTW too.. Scav as well..

The point is that there is certainly a subjective element to them and they are often a misrepresentation of what actually occurred.

I would disagree with often. Most times, I think they do actually represent what happened. However, there is a lot of value in knowing which times they do not. Things like pace, trips, and trainer intent can certainly distort things.

One thing you are right about PG, is that Strong Contender's 109 in the Dwyer is a joke.

Why? I'd like to hear some reasons and what the figure should have been.

Here's some reasons: doc cheney, da stoops, regent spirit, dontfearthereaper, and keyed entry.

Here's another, he got 3/4 in a leisurely 1:11+ and still finished in 1:45+. A 109 might have been close if it was 2 turns. It should have been a 103 at best IMHO.

None of that really explains why you think the figure is wrong.

i don't understand them either. do you leave them in the box? are they ever going to go up in value? how many are made? after all, if tons are produced, they really have no value as a collectors item....


oh wait. beyers....not breyers.;)

I still have 3 or 4 of mine. I have Secretariat, Man O' War, an appy and a grey one... can't remember his name.

lol

another thread hijacked?

i have slew-bought misty and stormy for my daughter way back when....