Count Fleet
 

For those who are close to the New York racing scene, how does Johannesburg Star look? How does Kiaran's horse look like - No Reply I think if his name? Basically, anyone have any good information to share regarding this race?

Sir Whimsey..

If Jstar runs back to his last, does he move to a top contender? Will the offers top the 2M already offered?

Again, you're wayyyy off base on this. He'll be at LEAST 10-1.

Steve -
What are your thoughts on Believeinmenow?

Would he be a sheets play against for successively moving up a decent amount (by beyers, a 24 and 25 figure each time) vs. gradually moving up each race?

I think No Reply lays over the field. Only slop would keep me from taking anything over 9:5. I hope they fall for Johannesburg Star, who isn't impossible but not likely, and somehow No Reply is second choice.

Not to answer for Byk, but IMO he's about the worst horse in the race and the one of the least likely winners.

Is he one of the horses who really benefited from the bias?

Yes and he can't clear here.

Yes, he galloped home in front on a day when every single race was a wire job. Only 3 horses actually passed rivals in the lane that day. I can honestly say I'd never seen a more biased ractrack. Out of that race, I'd prefer Sir Whimsey, who chased.
No Reply looks pretty good though.

Thanks for your input. :)

Generally handicapping question though, even though it's hard to create a hypothetical situation with so many factors at work; if a horse didn't win off a bias and had those sort of increases in Beyers, would you stay away from him or not? (assuming the odds were fair)

That's a bit too general as I look at a lot of factors. Horses that run good races without any trip advantages did just that....ran a good race. How that stacks up against the competition is what matters to me. I don't really think about horses showing improvement as though they are climbing some sort of ladder and thus rate to continue to improve, not to say I would criticize someone who does, it just isn't how I evaluate horses and races.

I don't believe in " bounce " at all if that is in any way what you are asking.

Again thanks for answering my questions.

BTW has my proxy on your question.. (I was writing up the AQU P4)..

Thanks for the reminder. I liked him from the PP's, but had forgotten about the last race bias. Bad thing to forget.

Wasn't going to bet the race, but was going to use him if I do the contest this weekend.

--Dunbar

I think he'll be empty long before he hits West Virginia.

He is a goat, how can you endorse such an obviously overmatched horse?

I think this "goat" can hit the board here. I like the post and i think the track is made to "order"".

He sure didn't get the cleverest of rides or trips last time and is in a great position tomorrow to get something. I doubt he's good enough to win, not that you implied that at all, but I also think he can hit the board. I would take a price in a prop against Johannesburg Star.

I guess it depends a bit on the track though I would guess you would be happy with mud. Besides his muddy track effort the randomness that associates itself with off-tracks works in your favor.