Derby Trail Forums - 12/28: Santa Anita (Opening Day)

SANTA ANITA ~ OPENING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Chair's Coin 9-2: Strong debut from wide post.. 3rd
Next Best: #12 Ramayana 3-1: Miss Temple City daughter needs trip.. WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #6 Heavenly Belle 20-1 -
Exotics Use: #10 Luckiest 6-1 4th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Plagarist 10-1: Giant overlay on tactical Glatt Beau Liam.. 6th
Next Best: #1 Winston Ave 9-5: One to beat but post not bargain.. 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Secured Freedom 8-1: Yakteen Practical Joke OK in one paced debut.. WON ($19.60)

3rd: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Candy Bar 8-1 9th
Best Value: #11 Starts Now 15-1 11th
Next Best: #7 Delightful Laura 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Miss Artois 10-1 6th

4th: CA-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Timekeeper's Charm 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #13 Wishtheyallcouldbe 5-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #12 Diva Cat 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Miss Practical 9-2 2nd

5th: Mathis Bros. Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Namaron the horse to beat, but a few are in range including Lyle the Croc (12/1!) who pairs up with tigress Queen Maxima in the mornings..

Best Value: #6 Lyle the Crocodile 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Namaron 3-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Friendly Confines 7-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Tempus Volat 9-2 2nd

P5 Grid:

1: 8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 3-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 6-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x2x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

P4 Grid:

2: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 3-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 6-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

6th: Laffit Pincay Jr. (G2), 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Nysos 3-5 WON ($2.40)
Next Best: #3 Nevada Beach 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Indispensable 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 British Isles SCR

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f-Hill (P5, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Proof He Rides 10-1 WON ($22.60)
Next Best: #1 Anmer Hall 7-2 DNF-Eased
Exotics Use: #8 Mucho Del Oro 6-1 11th
Super Add: #5 Legitimate 12-1 8th

$3 Turf P3 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
9: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4 = 32 x $3 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2 = 8 x $3 = $24

P4 Grid:

4: 6-13 (A), 3-12 (B), - (C)
5: 3-6 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x4 = $64 ($32 for each .50)
All A's: 2x2x1x2 = $8 ($4 for each .50)

8th: La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 SILENT LAW 10-1: Rare opp to get Baffert at a number 5th
Next Best: #9 Formula Rossa 3-1: The one to beat.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Brilliantly 6-1: Baffert Uncle Mo outworking Nevada Beach.. 4th
Super Add: #3 Five G 7-2: Weaver G2 winner got to Arcadia early to prep.. 9th

9th: San Gabriel (G3), 3+, 9f-T ($3 Late P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Mondego 8-1: Silly price on most logical candidate.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Stay Hot 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Cabo Spirit 8-1 WON ($14.80)
Super Add: #11 Nineeleventurbo 10-1 -

$3 Late P3 Grid:

9: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3x2 = 12 x $3 = $36

10th: Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f ($5 Late DBL)

Best Value: #3 Madaket Road 5-1: Should float up in price; Reunites with Irad.. 4th
Next Best: #10 Goal Oriented 5-1: Draws best of the Baffert quintet WON ($)
Exotics Use: #8 Cornucopion 7-2: Lands Prat for return to sprinting.. Late SCR
Super Add: #9 Barnes 3-1: Solid throughout season, but hasn't improved.. SCR

$5 Late DBL Grid:

10: 3-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x2 = 6 x $5 = $30

11th: American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f-T (Hi-5)

Atsila comes in as one to beat, but morning vibes are off for N.A. debut and trip a question mark. 'Prefer other more' as they say..

Best Value: #3 Cliffs 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Will Then 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Atsila 5-2 -
Super Add: #4 Ambaya 8-1 WON ($27.40)

P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 9-11 (A), 6 (B), 3-5 (C)
9: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (ACAAA): 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-5 in 8th)

P4 Grid:

8: 11 (A), 6-9 (B), 3-5 (C)
9: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 1x2x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-5 in 8th)

Let's get lucky!
Steve