Derby Trail Forums - 11/30: Churchill ($452k Must Pay P6 C/O); Del Mar ($330k Early P5 C/O);

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ CLOSING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MCLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

$452k Must Pay Derby City 6 starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Trouble Ahead 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Amalgamate 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Matinee Idol 7-2 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #12 Ponca 15-1 9th

8th: CLM/B, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Bergen 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Tom Cat Tuesday 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Sharp Swinger 5-1 WON ($12.66)
Exotics Use: #11 Ma Rae's Girl 20-1 5th

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Out of Deductions 3-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Presider 6-1 WON ($7.58)
Best Value: #14 King Curlin 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #9 Mount Rundle 6-1 2nd

10th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Tap Into This 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #14 Tour Player 3-1 WON ($7.46)
Best Value: #2 Dimatic 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Two Eagles River 6-1 6th

11th: Cherokee Mile, 3+, 1m (DD, Hi-5)

Not sure why Dragoon Guard is any more likely than 5-6 others..

Best Value: #5 This Is Uscar 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Implementation 10-1 11th
Exotics Use: #11 Dragoon Guard 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Multitask 8-1 5th

12th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (Must Pay Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Tre Italiani 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Barb 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Original Sin 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Dettori 4-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Overstatement 15-1 4th

.20 Derby City 'Must Pay' P6 Grid:

7: 4-5-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-12-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-5-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-3-5-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x1x3x2x5x5 = 450 x .20 = $90

P5 Grid:

8: 6-8 (A), - (B), 9-11 (C)
9: 4-12-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3 (A), - (B), 14 (C)
11: 2-3-5-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 3-5 (A), 1-7-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x3x1x5x2 = 60 x .50 = $30
Backups (CAAAA + AACAA): 2x3x1x5x2 = 60 x .50 = $30 (9-11 in 8th) + 2x3x1x5x2 = 60 x .50 = $30 (14 in 10th)

P4 Grid:

9: 4-9-12-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3 (A), - (B), 2-14 (C)
11: 2-3-5-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 3-5 (A), 1-7-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 4x1x5x2 = 40 x .50 = $20
Backup (ACAA): 4x2x5x2 = 80 x .50 = $40 (2-14 in 10th)

DEL MAR ~ CLOSING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CA-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Jimmy Blue Jeans 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Mr. Disrespectful 8-5 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Left Hand Man 5-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Cardiff Crack 8-1 4th

2nd: CA-MSW, 3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Otto's Magic 2-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Team Player 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #8 Maury Wills 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Infinitum 4-1 2nd

3rd: Cecile B. DeMille (G3), 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Hey Nay Nay 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Proton 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Tiger Track 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Unrivaled Time 8-1 WON ($13.00)

4th: CA-OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Libel Proof 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Pasalubong 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Lino's Angel 4-1 3rd

5th: Stormy Liberal, 3+, 5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Sorrento Sky 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Yellow Card 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 No Nay Hudson 8-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Unconquerable Keen 7-2 WON ($21.60)

P5 Grid:

1: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-7 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
4: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x2x5 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (4-6 in 3rd)

P4 Grid:

2: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-7 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
4: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x5 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

7th: Matriarch (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ag Bullet 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Breath Away 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Segesta 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Medoro 6-1 6th

Let's get lucky!
Steve