Derby Trail Forums - 8/28: Saratoga (Day 36; With Anticipation); KY Downs (Day 1; Tapit)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Rina's Revenge 6-1 WON ($9.50)
Next Best: #5 Absolute Smoke 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Clap Back 5-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Magic in My Eyes 9-2 2nd

7th: With Anticipation (G3), 2yo, 8.,5f-Inner (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

This is a fascinating group with the complication of a murky pace outlook and 3 players getting grass for the first time including Lady Eli son Dr. Agne who rallied for Cherie in off/turf debut..

Best Value: #7 Gloves Off 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Dr. Agne 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Capital Partner 5-2 3rd

8th: MSW, 3+, 9F-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Dirand 6-1 ~ DePaula Play of the Day
Next Best: #1 Johny's Rendezvous 5-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Cromwell 10-1 -
Super Add: #2 A Bourbon for Toby 7-2 -

9th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Winit 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Reddington 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Bramito 6-1 WON ($11.00)
Super Add: #9 Twenty Four Mamba 5-2 2nd

10th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Competitive Threat 2-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Aviso 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Cynane 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Artistic Success 5-1 2nd

11th: MCLM, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #2 Repurpose 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #11 Red Sea 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Sod Siren 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Extraordinary One 12-1 WON ($26.60)

P5 Grid:

7: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-6 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
10: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2 (A), 11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 1-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-6 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
10: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-11 (A), 3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

KENTUCKY DOWNS ~ OPENING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/NC-KEE$, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Intricate Spirit 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Steet Beast 10-1 WON ($7.92)
Next Best: #6 Thousandsticks 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Shake and Rattle 15-1 6th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Gray Is Okay 20-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Turf Star 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Ciborio 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Still Sober 15-1 -

8th: ALW/NC-KEE$, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Mackinac 3-1 WON ($3.68)
Best Value: #2 Collective Beauty 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sassy C W 7-2 -
Exotics Use: #10 Dreaming Collect 15-1 -

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Scattitude 7-2 WON ($8.38)
Best Value: #6 Mechaya 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Buynratty Manor 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Grade A 9-2 4th

10th: Tapit-R, 3+, 1m-70y (DD)

Best Value: #3 Nineeleventurbo 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Cameo Performance 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #14 Lagynos 8-1 WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #13 Steal Sunshine Gate SCR

11th: MSW, 3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Montador 8-1 WON ($8.18)
Next Best: #10 Eleven Bravo 6-1 -
Exotics Use: #2 Swirling Eights 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Western Run 4-1 2nd

P5 Grid:

7: 7-9-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C)
9: 6-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
11: 4-10 (A), - (B), 2-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-9 in 11th)

P4 Grid:

8: 2-6 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C)
9: 6-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-7 (A), - (B), 13-14 (C)
11: 4-10 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AACA): 2x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (13-14 in 10th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (5,6/10/4,5,9,10,13-16/4) Paid $89.86 x 2 = $179.92

Let's get lucky!
Steve