Derby Trail Forums - 8/9: Colonial (Million Day); Saratoga (6th-12th)

COLONIAL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Frank Petramalo Mile, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Hadn’t examined this closely before last night, but this is a terrific race..

Best Value: #9 Rolando 6-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #8 Barbadian Runner 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Optical 8-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Flood Zone 7-2 5th

6th: Tyson Gilpin, 3yo-F, 7f (.50 O/D P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Reputation 6-1 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #2 Impulse Buy 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 G W's Girl 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #11 Kimchi Cat 15-1 8th

7th: Andy Guest, F&M-3+, 5.5f-Inner (STK P5, P3, DD)

Succeed Challenge Race ~ 90 Days Succeed to Winning Connections!

Best Value: #8 Cart Girl Sam 6-1: 3rd Favorite certainly legit, but Tapiture miss keeps improving..
Next Best: #2 Mrs. Gambolini 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Crown Imperial 9-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Hollywood Walk 4-1 WON ($19.00)

8th: Van Clief, 3+, 5.5f-Outer (STK P4, P3, DD)

At least half this field can win and note that the SCR's will take some of the early speed off the front end. Tough calls..

Best Value: #3 Had to Have Him 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Nothing Better 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Isivunguvungu 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Witty 6-1 WON ($8.00)

P4 Grid:

5: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
6: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-5-11 (A), 1-6-13 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (4-5 in 5th)

9th: Secretariat (G2), 3yo, 1m-Inner (Late P4, P3, DD)

As discussed with Crafty on Win Using Thoro-Graph, Dream On is not an imposing fave against some forward moving types..

Best Value: #4 Simulate 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Giocoso 6-1 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Dream On 5-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Antisocial 10-1 3rd

10th: Beverly D (G2), F&M-3+, 9.5f-Outer (P3, DD)

Everybody seems to be taking the price on Spanish Eyes ~ typically the kiss of death..

Best Value: #3 Beach Bomb 4-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Be Your Best 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Spanish Eyes 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Charlene's Dream 7-2 WON ($7.20)

11th: Arlington Million (G1), 3+, 10f-Outer (DD)

It would be just like Integration to get this kind of opportunity at the G1, only to beaten by his stablemate.. And that's what's going to happen.

Best Value: #6 Fort Washington 4-1 WON ($13.40)
Next Best: #8 Integration 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Cairo 7-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Mystik Dan 9-2 4th

All STK P5 Grid:

7: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-5-11 (A), - (B), 1-6-13 (C)
9: 1-4 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
10: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
Backup (ACAAA): 2x3x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (1-6-13 in 8th)

All STK P4 Grid:

8: 3-11 (A), 1-5 (B), 6-13 (C)
9: 1-4 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
10: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (11-13 in 8th)

12th: ALW/N2L, 3yo, 8.5f-Inner

Most Likely: #5 Soleil Volant 5-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Outrunner 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Crab Daddy 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 English Law 5-1 3rd

Late P4 Grid:

9: 1-4 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
10: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 3-5 (A), - (B), 6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAC): 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6-8 in 12th)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Challenging start to middle P5 with a number of sharp-working, well-pedigreed colts signed on..

Most Likely: #6 Golden Tornado 5-2 WON ($9.60)
Best Value: #4 Stone County 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Oscar's Hope 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Senior Lender 6-1 8th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-Inner (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Depiction 3-1: 5th Cherie's GSP More Than Ready gets a set up here..
Best Value: #5 Itsallcomintogetha 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Resilience 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Exact Estimate 5-2 WON ($6.10)

8th: OC-$100k/C, 3+, 6F (Late P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Eye-popping assembly of veteran sprinters (44 wins combined) who are collectively returning to form..

Best Value: #3 Maximus Meridius 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Surveillance 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Damon's Mound 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Little Ni 3-1 WON ($7.20)

9th: Saratoga Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Totally Justified 6-1: 5th In Rusty, we trusty..
Next Best: #6 Laurelin 9-5 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Go Go Boots 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Opulent Restraint 2-1 3rd

10th: Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-Inner (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 El Rezeen 15-1: 5th Can't resist trying this yet-to-go-backwards English Channel from Pletcher/Shadwell..
Next Best: #5 Nation's Pride 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Far Bridge 9-5 6th
Super Add: #1 El Cordobes 4-1 WON ($10.00)

P5 Grid:

6: 4-6 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
7: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-8 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
9: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x2x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (2-6 in 8th)

11th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Alyeska 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Chatter 6-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Limes Don't Lie 5-1 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Next On Stage 9-2 5th

12th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #7 Fidelightcayut 3-1 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #9 Ortus 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 El de Larry 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Charles J 5-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

8: 3-8 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
9: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
11: 3-5 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
12: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (CAAAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (2-6 in 8th)

P4 Grid:

9: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
11: 3-5 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
12: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick 4 (6-1-2-7) Paid $159.25

Let's get lucky!
Steve