Derby Trail Forums - 7/26: Saratoga (Jim Dandy/Lake George)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Soldier N Diplomat 8-5: $950k Viola Army Mule buy from Asmussen has tongues wagging.. WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #1 Vino Vici 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Further Ado 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Accost 6-1 2nd

3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Brave Buck 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #6 Middle Market 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Tarpaulin 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Vigano 8-1 2nd

4th: OC/Cond., 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Arthur's Ride 4-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Strapped 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Film Star 7-2 WON ($14.20)

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Korrongo 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Unbroken Chain 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Nano Man 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Hard Par 6-1 6th

P4 Grid:

2: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 3-4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-6-7-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x4x1x6 = $24 ($12 for .50)

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.4f-Inner (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

This looks wide open with favored Chad player posted wide and no better than several others. Use as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #4 Tongue Twister 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Bryant and Cooper 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Island Fox 12-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Sail With the Wind 8-1 2nd

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Vajra 5-2: Brisset Vekoma filly owns advantage of start.. 5th
Best Value: #10 Lolly Poppin 15-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Immortalize 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Tommy Jo 4-1 WON ($6.90)

P4 Grid:

4: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-6-7-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 3-4-5-8-9-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4 (A), - (B), 10 (C)

All A's: 1x6x6x1 = $36 ($18 for .50)

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (Late P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Devilishly difficult state-bred set with 2 fast Finger Lakes invaders adding to the intrigue..

Most Likely: #4 Blamicker 8-1: Jumped forward last with Lasix added.. 6th
Best Value: #5 Leo's Reward 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 On the Hill 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Bustin Away 10-1 8th

9th: Lake George (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Classic Q seems likely to wire this group as there's no one to keep her company unless another pilot gets aggressive on impossibly fast inner turf. Daisy Flyer from highly clever Rusty Arnold will need to move accurately under Lezcano, but she's the right price to play with..

Best Value: #3 Daisy Flyer 12-1 WON ($16.40)
Next Best: #5 Classic Q 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Lavender Disaster 5-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Aterradora 10-1 5th

10th: Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Beat Byk for Saturday

Best Value: #2 Sandman 6-1: Right here, right now price play with blinks added and J. Ortiz back on.. 5th
Next Best: #1 Baeza 3-1: Shirreffs charge returns to Spa off insane series of works.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Sovereignty 2-5: Parallels to FL Derby prep for KY seem apt with Mott wanting a Travers.. WON ($)

P5 Grid:

6: 3-4-5-12 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
7: 4 (A), - (B), 10 (C)
8: 4-5 (A), 7-10 (B), - (C)
9: 3-5 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
10: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 4x1x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAACA): 4x1x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (4-8 in 9th)

11th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5F-T (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Nonna Lynne 6-1: Chad 2nd/break with Sol Kumin home bred. 6-1? OK.. WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #3 Off Script 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Tahila 6-1 -
Exotics Use: #9 Hello Beauty 5-2 -

12th: MCLM, 3+, 8.5f-Inner

Best Value: #4 Suspiciously Named 30-1: Pringle stretchout cut below, but may forget to stop.. 2nd
Next Best: #10 Hedge the Risk 9-2 WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #7 Fateful Lightening 2-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Battle Drum 6-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

8: 4-5 (A), 7-10 (B), - (C)
9: 3-5 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
10: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
12: 4-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (ACAAA): 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-8 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

9: 3-5 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
10: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-6 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C)
12: 4-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACA): 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-9 in 11th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/5/6,9/10) Paid $86.62 (A-A-A-A)

Let's get lucky!
Steve