Derby Trail Forums - 7/12: Saratoga (Day 3; Diana) ~ OFF TURF EXCEPT STKS

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Tagermeen 9-5: $1.4MM Into Mischief the Asmussen ATR Lock of the Week.. 2nd
Next Best: #1 Throckmorton 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Time to Strike 9-2 4th

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Has the look of an important group of fillies with the firsters the focus..

Best Value: #3 Fancy Footwork 5-1: Curlin/Tara's Tango miss looks well prepped.. 3rd
Next Best: #5 Ginger Ale 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Atropa 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Asking 6-1 7th

3rd: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Art Fair 7-2: Cycling back to the good Mar/Apr tries.. 3rd
Next Best: #7 Jerry's Out 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Mega Magic 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Uncle Jim 4-1 6th

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Burninhunkoflove 5-2 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #7 Lost in Rome 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Graywing 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Ceepeegee 7-2 7th

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-OFF (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Magical Ways 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Resilience 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #14 Accretive 5-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Certified Loverboy 5-2 2nd

P5 Grid:

1: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-2-4 (C)
3: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 5-7 (A), 11-14 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAAA): 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-2-4 in 2nd)

P5 Grid:

2: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-2-4 (C)
3: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 5-7-11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
All A's: 2x1x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (CAAA): 3x1x3x4 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-2-4 in 2nd)

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-OFF (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Two Bits 5th
Next Best: #7 Pulstar WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Delightful Darling 2nd
Super Add: #1e Repole Ownership entry 3rd/6th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Crazily contentious ALW set with what looks like too many speeds for pace not to be honest ~ at the least..

Most Likely: #4 Drake's Passage 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Society Man 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 (POE) Malarchuk 9-5 WON ($4.50)/2nd
Exotics Use: #1e Final Turn ownership entry 6-1 2nd/9th

P4 Grid:

4: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 5-7 (A), - (B), 11-14 (C)
6: 7-8 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
7: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAA): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (11-14 in 5th)

8th: Bowling Green (G2), 4+, 11f-Inner (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

SCR Corruption who goes next week in the United Nations & Tawny Port who worked a half mile Friday..

Best Value: #4 Tuscon 15-1: With Corruption out, Saez a dangerous commodity on front end here.. 4th
Next Best: #7 Far Bridge 6-5 WON ($3.10)

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-OFF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Waitlist SCR
Next Best: #5 Gilded Craken WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Common Defense 2nd
Super Add: #14 Register 4th

P5 Grid:

5: 7 (A), 5 (B), 11-14 (C)
6: 7-8 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
7: 2-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (11-14 in 5th)

10th: OC/C, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Scotland 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Runninsonofagun 8-1 DNF/Pulled Up
Next Best: #4 General Partner 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Illuminaire 8-1 9th

11th: Diana (G1), F&M-4+, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 She Feels Pretty 1-1 2nd ~ BEAT BYK (Week 1): https://www.ntra.com/nhc/beatbyk/
Best Value: #2 Choisya 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Excellent Truth 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Dynamic Pricing 9-2 4th

12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF

Most Likely: #9 Gellhorn 3rd
Next Best: #11 Cara's Chianti 5th
Exotics Use: #4 She Wants War 2nd

P5 Grid:

8: 4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
12: 9 (A), 11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

9: 5-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
12: 9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Let's get lucky!
Steve