Derby Trail Forums - 8/3: Saratoga ~ Day 18 (97th Whitney Day)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo, 1m-OFF (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Assertiveness 4th
Next Best: #2 Dew 3rd

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Friend Ofthe Devil 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Spirit of the Law 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Probability 5-2 5th
Super Add: #4 The Toner 7-2 2nd

3rd: OC-S/ALW, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Deck of Cards 2-1 WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #5 Cinderella's Cause 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Movie Moxy 9-2 3rd

4th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Elliptic 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Call Her Bluff 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Silent Melody 9-2 2nd

5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f ('Must Pay' P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Sea Vista 5-2: Half to Nash out of the top notch MGSW Sara Louise.. 2nd
Best Value: #9 Cyclone State 10-1: IA-bred dirtied up from debut; Good morning vibes.. 7th
Next Best: #6 Classicist 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 I Got Game 7-2 5th

P5 Grid:

1: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 3-4-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 3-7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x4x3x3x1 = 72 x .50 = $36

P4 Grid:

2: 3-4-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 3-7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x3x1 = $36 ($18 for .50)

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Strong looking group..

Best Value: #5 El Prestigio 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Praetor 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Contrabandist 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Ferocious 7-2 WON ($8.90)

7th: 6th Saratoga Derby (G2), 3yo, 9.5f-T (Must Pay All STK P5, P3, DD)

CANCELLED

8th: 100th Test (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

If Ways/Means doesn't regress from monster Belmont Day effort, she won't lose, but Mane Squeeze appears poised to pounce from just behind the pace and Brightwork working sharply for seasonal bow and was really good here last summer. Then there's the 2 Cox fillies. Not a simple equation if Ways/Means returns to earth..

Most Likely: #4 Ways and Means 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #5 My Mane Squeeze 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Brightwork 6-1 Paddock SCR
Exotics Use: #2 Denim and Pearls 7-2 4th

9th: 20th Lure-R, 4+, 8.5f-OFF (Late P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Film Star WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #3 Swiftsure 3rd

10th: 21st Troy (G3), 4+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

CANCELLED

11th: 97th Whitney (G1), 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Have come to the conclusion that there's no need to complicate this event: National Treasure wins under most scenarios. Even if the rain is just moderate, the track figures to be speed-favoring and since Prat took over on him at Breeders' Cup last year, he's been easy to find on the front end. If you're looking to cash a ticket, there's plenty of value options in the exotics..

Most Likely: #3 NATIONAL TREASURE 9-5 6th
Best Value: #4 Warrior Johny 20-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Skippylongstocking 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Post Time 20-1 3rd

12th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Zadorsky 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Striker Has Dial 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 St. Benedicts Prep 4-1 WON ($)
Super Add: #8 Nikitis 8-1 7th

13th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-OFF

Most Likely: #15 Drake's Passage 4-5 6th
Best Value: #7 Black Powder 20-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Magical Ways 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #14 Phileas Fogg 9-2 WON ($18.40)

Good luck!
Steve