Derby Trail Forums - 10/28: Aqueduct (4th-11th); Keeneland (8th-9th)

BELMONT AT AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 7f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 (POE) Big Bobby 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Magnolia Midnight 7-2 WON ($5.70)
Exotics Use: #5 Scilly Cay 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Sagamore Mischief 7-2 2nd

5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 More Than Vows 9-2 7th
Next Best: #6 You Look Cold 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #1 Taming the Tigress 3-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Lady Milagro 8-1 4th

6th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Dontmesswithtess 3-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Miss Kristy 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Diamond Status 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Elle Est Forte 9-2 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Redistricting 6-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #10 Capture the Flag 6-1 4th
Best Value: #8 My Imagination 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Quality G 8-1 2nd

8th: Mother Goose (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Xigera 6-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #7 Defining Purpose 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Occult 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Undervalued Asset 8-1 6th

P5 Grid:

4: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 7-8 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
7: 5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-6-7 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups (A-A-C-A-A): 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (1 in 4th)

P4 Grid:

5: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 7-8 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
7: 5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-5-6-7 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups (A-A-A-C): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-2 in 8th)

9th: Awad, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

All so lightly raced that it's hard to know who moves forward. Blue Creek has experience and fitness going for him. Don't hold KY Downs tries against Move to Gold & British Sea. Euro import Innate and unknown quantity/fresh face..

Best Value: #4 Blue Creek 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Move to Gold 9-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Innate 9-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Spirit Prince 8-5 2nd

10th: Forty Niner (G2), 3+, 1m (DD)

Speed aplenty lined up.. Dr Ardito to get to them late? Price is square..

Best Value: #5 Dr Ardito 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Accretive 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Everso Mischievous 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #4 Film Star 3-1 4th

11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer

Best Value: #5 Wish List 8-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Karen's Broomstick 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Nyxed 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Riviere 5-1 8th

P5 Grid:

7: 5 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
8: 5-6-7 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C)
9: 3-4 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-C-A-A): 1x3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-8 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

8: 5-6-7 (A), 4 (B), 1-2 (C)
9: 3-4 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
10: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (C-A-A-A): 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-2 in 8th)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Bryan Station (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Gigante 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Talk of the Nation 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Smokey Mandate 9-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Appraise 8-1 8th

9th: Fayette (G2), 3+, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Twilight Blue 15-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Trademark 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Law Professor 8-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Il Miracolo 6-1 2nd

Good luck!
Steve