Derby Trail Forums - 10/7: Aqueduct (4th-11th); Keeneland (6th-11th; BC Challenge P6)

BELMONT AT AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: Joe Hirsch (G1), 3+, 12f-Inner (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Soldier Rising 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 War Like Goddess 2-1 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Stone Age 5-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Rebel's Romance 9-5 4th

5th: Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Emery 2-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Just F Y I 3-1 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #1 Irish Maxima 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Life Talk 9-5 3rd

6th: BEL Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 6f-OFF (P6, P3, DD))

SCR favorite Big Invasion who runs tomorrow at Woodbine..

Best Value: #3 Alogon 8-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Dancing Buck 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Thin White Duke 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Today's Flavor 8-1 WON ($4.80)

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 I'mhavingamoment 2-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Apropos 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 White Chocolate 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Obrigado 4-1 5th

8th: Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Fierceness 6-5 7th
Best Value: #7 Gold Sweep 8-1 4th
Best Value: #4 General Partner 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 El Grande O 8-1 6th

P5 Grid:

4: 2-6 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
5: 6 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
6: 3-11 (A), 7-9 (B), - (C) ~ Becomes ALL
7: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-C-A-A-A): 2x1x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5 in 5th)

P4 Grid:

5: 6 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
6: 3-11 (A), 7-9 (B), - (C) ~ Becomes ALL
7: 2-3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x2x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

9th: Jockey Club Derby (G3), 3yo, 11f-OFF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Lost Ark WON ($9.70)
Best Value: #5 Dataman 4th
Next Best: #6 Classic Catch 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Fearless Soldier 3rd

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #10 Frat Pack 2-1 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #2 Lafitte's Fleet 10-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Maker's Candy 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Cicciobello 12-1 10th

11th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF

Most Likely: #6 Can't Keep Me Down WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #13 Ghostly Girl 5th
Next Best: #14 Bon Adieu 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Roman Goddess 3rd

P5 Grid:

7: 2-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 10 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
11: 6-13 (A), 12-14 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-C-A): 2x3x3x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (2-5 in 10th)

P4 Grid:

8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 10 (A), 2 (B), 5 (C)
11: 6-12-13-14 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x3x1x4 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-C-A): 3x3x1x4 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5 in 10th)

KEENELAND ~ BC CHALLENGE P6

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (All STK P5, $3 Turf P3, P32, DD)

Best Value: #6 Olympic Runner 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Live in The Dream 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Our Shot 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Kaufymaker 12-1 9th

$3 Turf P3 Grid:

KEE 6: 2-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
KEE 8: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
KEE 10: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x3x3 = 27 x $3 = $81

7th: TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (BC Challenge P6, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Wicked Halo 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Yuugiri 2-1 WON ($5.76)
Exotics Use: #3 Last Leaf 9-2 3rd

$1 BC Challenge P6 Grid:

KEE 7: 1 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
SA 3: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
KEE 9: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)
KEE 10: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 8: 6 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
SA 9: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x3x2x3 = $108
All A's: 1x3x1x3x1x3 = $27

$1 Pick 6 (6/1/2,9/5/6/2) Paid $342.08
$1 Pick Six Conso (6/1/2,9/5/6/2) Paid $8.40 x 8 = $67.20

SA 3rd: Chandelier (2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Gate to Paradise 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Laurent 5-2 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Chatalas 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #7 Dua 3-1 3rd

8th: First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Gina Romantica 10-1 WON ($25.02)
Next Best: #3 In Italian 4-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Whitebeam 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Gam's Mission 15-1 5th

9th: Breeders Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Locked 7-5 WON ($3.52)
Best Value: #5 West Saratoga 20-1 5th
Next Best: #1 The Wine Steward 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Awesome Road 3-1 7th

10th: Coolmore Turf Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Master of The Seas 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Annapolis 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Up to the Mark 5-2 WON ($6.58)
Exotics Use: #3 Stitched 15-1 7th

All STK P5 Grid:

6: 2-6-8-9 (A), 1-11 (B), - (C)
7: 1 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
8: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 9 (A), - (B), 1-3-5 (C)
10: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x1x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 4x1x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-C-A): 4x1x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-3-5 in 9th)

All STK P4 Grid:

7: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 9 (A), - (B), 1-3-5 (C)
10: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3x1x3 = 18 x $2 = $36
Backup (A-A-C-A): 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27 (1-3-5 in 9th)

$2 Pick 4 (6-1-2/9-5) Paid $751.44 (A-A-A-A)

SA 8th: Rodeo Drive (G2), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Didia 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #4 Closing Remarks 4-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Anisette 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Juncture 8-1 3rd

SA 9th: American Pharoah (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Muth 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #3 Next Level 4-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Wine Me Up 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Raging Torrent 6-1 4th

11th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Nash 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Who's the King 20-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Booth 4-1 WON ($12.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Kitty Hawk 20-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #13 Goldbrick 15-1 5th

P4 Grid:

8: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 9 (A), - (B), 1-3-5 (C)
10: 1-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-9 (A), 6-7-13 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x3x5 = $45
All A's: 3x1x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (A-C-A-A): 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-3-5 in 9th)

$1 Pick 4 (1-2/9-5-7) Paid $826.20

Good luck!
Steve