Derby Trail Forums - 8/23: Saratoga (Day 30; Sheppard/John's Call)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Jonathon Sheppard H. (G1), 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 L'Imperator 9-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Awakened 6-1 WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #9 McTigue 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Noah and the Ark 4-1 8th

2nd: NY-CLM, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

At even money, feels like you're supposed to try and beat returning Perfect Munnings, but with whom?

Most Likely: #4 Perfect Munnings 1-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #6 Lohengrin Two 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Bustin Shout 5-2 3rd

3rd: OC/Cond., 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Coppola 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 (POE) Mid Day Image 5-1 5th/6th
Exotics Use: #3 High Front 2-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Thin White Duke 7-2 4th

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Laurel Valley 5-1 WON ($7.60) ~ DePaula Play of the Day
Next Best: #5 Slapintheface 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Tony O 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Mission Hill 7-2 4th

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) April Antics 7-2 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #3 Disruption 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 I'm Nervous Now 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Red Moon Late SCR

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Dixie Pharoah 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Mischief Joke 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Blue Eighty Five 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Skyler's Starship 12-1 WON ($16.80)

P5 Grid:

2: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
3: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-3 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
6: 3-5-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x1x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (C-A-A-A-A): 1x2x1x2x3 = 12 x .50 = $6 (7 in 2nd)

P4 Grid:

3: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-3 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
6: 3-5-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x5 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

7th: John's Call-R, 4+, 13f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Good Skate 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 British Royalty 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Tawny Port 9-2 WON ($7.50)
Super Add: #8 Sy Dog 5-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

4: 8 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
5: 1-2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 3-5-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
7: 1-5-6 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 1x4x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (C-A-A-A): 1x4x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5 in 4th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (8-1-6-6) Paid $545.00

8th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Strapped 9-2 11th
Next Best: #4 Rockstar Red 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Bee Well 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Bolt d'Plata 12-1 5th

9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Amundson 9-2 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #1 Straight Arrow 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Radio Red 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Aggregation 5-1 6th

10th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #8 Negra Gata 9-2 9th
Best Value: #10 Iguazu 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Accept the Outcome 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Shesasmalltowngirl 5-1 4th

P5 Grid:

6: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)
7: 1-5-6 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
8: 4-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8 (A), 10 (B), 11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x2x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (C-A-A-A-A & A-A-A-A-C): 2x3x2x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-6 in 6th); 3x3x2x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (11-12 in 10th);

P4 Grid:

7: 1-4-5 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
8: 4-11 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8-10 (A), 11-12 (B), (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x2x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (A-B-A-A): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (7-8 in 8th);

Good luck!
Steve