Derby Trail Forums - 8/19: Saratoga (Alabama Day; 4th-11th)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

In a field with lots of in and out types, In Sky We Trust (5-1) has been consistent and is priced squarely..

Most Likely: #6 In Sky We Trust 5-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Handsome Cat 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Air Show 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Flamingo Hawk 10-1 4th

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Durante 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #1e Rodriguez entry 7-5 2nd/3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Abadin 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 A La Carte 8-1 5th

6th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 1m-Off/Turf (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Leadership Ability 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #7 Jayla 10-1 4th
Next Best: #16 Mucho Macho Mia 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Dream Road 8-1 6th

7th: Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-Inner (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Klaravich/Brown Lake George exacta of Surge Capacity/Tax Implications loom large right back, but Aspray dials back to more reasonable trip. Pletcher's 2-for-2 Junipermarshmellow makes 3yo debut here and feels like a price that can boost exotics with the Chad players..

Best Value: #4 Tax Implications 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Surge Capacity 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Aspray 7-2 WON ($8.70)
Super Add: #5 Junipermarshmallow 12-1 8th

8th: OC/Cond., F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Rare 3rd level ALW with field/purse befitting a G3..

Most Likely: 7 Nostalgic 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #8 Misty Veil 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Gerrymander 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Favor 6-1 5th

P5 Grid:

4: 2-6 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
5: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4 (A), 7 (B), 2-5 (C)
8: 3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

P4 Grid:

5: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-7 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
8: 3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 4 (8-9-2-7) Paid $51.50

9th: Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (P3, DD)

Terrific gathering for this seasonal classic distance test and hard-pressed not to come back to Taxed who provided dynamite score for ATR listeners in the Black-Eyed Susan. Gets pace to chase and though number won't be 8-1, it should still be square. Even with other speed signed on, Randomized has license to be forward and tough to catch in late stages. Julia Shining bred for this unique assignment and has been focused on this date for months. Wet Paint probably more likely to finish in front of Fireline, but bulbous price and the Arrogate/Quality Road mare breeding make her worth including..

Best Value: #9 Taxed 8-1 6th-down via DQ
Next Best: #8 Randomized 9-2 WON ($16.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Julia Shining 5-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Fireline 12-1 8th

10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-Inner (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Napoleonic War 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Duke of Hazzard 8-1 WON ($21.20)
Next Best: #5 Whisper Not 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Verbal 5-2 7th

11th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 5.5f-Off/Turf

Most Likely: #10 Henson 8-5 WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #14 Blue Plate Special 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Kern River 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1a Petrolo 5-2 6th

P5 Grid:

7: 4-7 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
8: 3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 10 (A), 14 (B), 1-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 2x3x3x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

$0.50 Pick 5 (2/7/8/1/6,9,10,13,15) Paid $1,533.50

P4 Grid:

8: 3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-8-9 (A), 1-2-5-7 (B), - (C)
10: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 10-14 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x7x2x2 = 84 x .50 = $42
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/8/1/6,9,10,13,15) Paid $290.75 A-A-A-A

Good luck!
Steve