Derby Trail Forums - 8/5: Saratoga (Whitney/Test; 4th-12th)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-OFF/TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Zeebear 8-5 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #7 Shared Success 12-1 3rd

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Fun and confusing group, but Be the Boss (8-1) returns to dirt (and Spa), has been adept at 7/8ths and is a square price..

Best Value: #7 Be the Boss 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Two for Charging 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Golden Arm 6-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Straight Arrow 15-1 WON ($11.80)

6th: Troy (G3), 4+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Does the yielding turf enhance the opportunity to beat (5 straight) Caravel (4/1-0-3 on less than firm)?

Best Value: #6 Mister Mmmmm 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Cogburn 8-1 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Caravel 3-5 4th
Super Add: #7 Nobals 7-2 2nd

7th: Lure-R, 4+, 8.5f-Inner (P6, P3, DD)

12-1 probably doesn't hold up on Chazzesmee SCR given success on heavy going at Naas..

Most Likely: #1 Portfolio Company 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Smokin' T 7-2 WON ($13.80)
Best Value: #8 Doctor Davis 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Mid Day Image 15-1 8th

P4 Grid:

4: 11 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
5: 3-4-7 (A), 1-5-6-10 (B), - (C)
6: 3-4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x7x4x4 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A's: 1x3x4x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 1x3x4x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (7 in 4th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (11-10-3-2) Paid $334.50

8th: Test (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Lots of pace involved in this aptly named G1 and division leading Pretty Mischievous should get a cozy trip in behind the collection of need-the-lead fillies. Pricey Dorth Vader (6-1), Clearly Unhinged (12-1) & Jersey Pearl (15-1) look like the candidates to boost the exotics (whether you like Pretty Mischievous or the other top ML choices)..

Most Likely: #1 Pretty Mischievous 9-5 WON ($5.70) ~ Beat Byk Selection - www.ntra.com/beatbyk
Next Best: #6 Dorth Vader 6-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Jersey Pearl 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Clearly Unhinged 12-1 2nd

9th: Saratoga Derby, 3yo, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Feels like winner comes from among the Belmont Derby exiters, Euro filly and emerging Klaravich rig. Will come down to preference for yielding surface and trip..

Best Value: #6 Webslinger 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Program Trading 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Aspen Grove 12-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Far Bridge 2-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

5: 3-4-7 (A), - (B), 1-5-10 (C).
6: 3-6 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
8: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x2x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-5-10 in 5th)

$0.50 Pick 5 (10-3-2-1/5-2) Paid $5,377.50 (C-A-A-A-A)

P4 Grid:

6: 3-6 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
8: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick 4 (3-2-1/5-2) Paid $333.00 (A-A-A-A)

10th: Whitney (G1), 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Don't know why Cody's Wish doesn't stretch to 9f successfully. Separately though, enigmatic Charge It will be on a loose lead and is no tomato can..

Most Likely: #6 Cody's Wish 1-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Zandon 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 White Abarrio 6-1 WON ($22.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Charge It 5-1 4th

11th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Interesting group with seemingly latent talent, but lightly-raced Cox colt Everso Mischievous has been successfully exchanging morning blows with Saudi Crown..

Most Likely: #7 Everso Mischievous 2-1 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #4 Bad to the Bones 15-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Caramel Chip 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Frat Pack 9-2 3rd

12th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-Inner

Deep, competitive group with 2nd/3rd choices no better than the next 5-6 candidates. Beuys the horse to beat (Walsh/Murphy), but being outposted is no bargain. Danzigwiththestars has perfromed well upstate, including with Saez..

Best Value: #2 Danzigwithestars 10-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Beuys 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 What Say Thee 15-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Fair Dinkum 20-1 WON ($33.80)

P5 Grid:

8: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-5-6 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
11: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2-5-12 (A), 1-6-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x5x1x6 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 5 (1,5/2/5/7/6) Paid $7,477.75

P4 Grid:

9: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-5-6 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
11: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2-5-12 (A), 1-6-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x1x6 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 2x3x1x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

$0.50 Pick 5 (2/5/7/6) Paid $1,107.75

Good luck!
Steve