Derby Trail Forums - 10/29: BEL@AQU ($50k P6 C/O); KEE/SA Spot Plays

BELMONT@AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: Awad, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Sendero 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Freedom Trail 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Conman 10-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Dandy Handyman 4-1 2nd

5th: Kelso (G2), 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$50k P6 C/O starts here..

VERY difficult carryover skein here. Not sure it can be hit on a modest budget; Baby Yoda in a distinct alternating pattern, but certainly the one to beat..

Best Value: #3 Morello 4-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Baby Yoda 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Empty Tomb 3-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Shackqueenking 5-1 3rd

6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Really well-matched group, but Mrs. Green saves ground, is improving and should be first to pounce on leader Stop War..

Most Likely: #1 Mrs. Green 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Mischievous Dream 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Gogo Shoes 9-2 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Stop War 7-2 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T

Very little obvious pace involved here, which could open the door for sprint stretch out candidate Icy Star Down (12-1), second time router Tuscan Queen (15-1), or perhaps Malibu Curl (10-1) who gets the aggressive big boy. Maybe it's as simple as the 2 Chad Browns, but Customer List appears to need a forward move to contend. Very tricky group in increasingly demanding sequence..

Best Value: #8 Tuscan Queen 15-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Customer List 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Icy Stare Down 12-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Parnac 9-2 WON ($8.30)

P4 Grid:

4: 2-4 (A), 1-3 (B), 6-7 (C)
5: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12

8th: Pumpkin Pie, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

As in the Bold Ruler that follows, pacesetter Oxana has real shot to wire. Effort 2 back from Boston Post Road would be imposing here..

Best Value: #6 Oxana 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Boston Post Road 9-5 WON ($3.30)
Exotics Use: #4 Dr B 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Glass Ceiling 5-2 4th

9th: Bold Ruler (G3), 3+, 6f (DD)

Nice group. Meraas tired at Spa but could take them a long way here. Jaxon gets first run at him with Runninson ready to pounce off the outside stalking trip. Factor It In and Eastern Bay are capable Midlantic invaders. And I haven't mentioned Drafted!

Best Value: #8 Runninsonofagun 9-2 WON ($7.30)
Next Best: #4 Jaxon Traveler 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Meraas 5-1 10th
Super Add: #3 Factor It In 8-1 3rd

10th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-Outer

Has feel of wild ending to brutally tough multi sequences..

Best Value: #1 Inflation Adjusted 8-1 WON ($25.40)
Next Best: #6 Relate 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Frenchboro 10-1 11th
Super Add: #2 Sonic Speed 10-1 7th

P6 Grid:

5: 3-6 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-8 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-8 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x4x2x2x2 = $96
All A's: 2x1x2x2x2x2 = $32
Backups: 2x1x2x2x2x2 = $32 (1-3 in 9th)

P5 Grid:

6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-7 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 1x4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backups: 1x4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (2-7 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-7 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backups: 4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (2-7 in 9th)

$0.50 Pic 4 (2/1,2/8/1) Paid $132.00 (A-A-A-A)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Bryan Station (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 Play Action Pass 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Wit 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Balnikhov 8-1 WON ($15.28)
Super Add: #9 Wow What a Summer 30-1 9th

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Twilight Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Degree of Risk 12-1 6th
Next Best: #9 War at Sea Gate SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Handy Dandy 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Perfect Flight 6-1 3rd

Good luck!
Steve