Derby Trail Forums - 7/2: Belmont ($63k P6 C/O); Churchill (6th-10th); X-C Pick 5

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Emboite 9-2 6th
Next Best: #4 Internal Capital 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Breakwater 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Sousa Summer 4-1 3rd

6th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Writeitontheice 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Endowed 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Air Show 7-2 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Happy Hill Lil 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 She's a Mia 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Autumn Glory 2-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Dufresne 8-1 3rd

8th: Dwyer (G3), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Charge It 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #6 Nabakov 2-1 6th
Best Value: #2 No Sabe Nada 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Fluid Situation 5-1 3rd

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner (DD)

Most Likely: #10 O'Gotten Girl 5-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Silky Blue 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 She's the One 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Cruz Bay 10-1 9th

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T

Most Likely: #9 Bay Street Money 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Poet of Life 7-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Thin White Duke 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Devil's Outlaw 4-1 9th

P6 Grid:

5: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2 (A), - (B), 3-9 (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
9: 5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8-9-12 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x2x2x3 = $72
All A's: 2x1x2x1x2x3 = $24
Backups: $24 (3-9 in 7th) + $48 (2-6 in 8th) + $16 (3-7 in 10th)

P5 Grid:

6: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
9: 5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8-9-12 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 xx .50 = $18
Backups: $36 (2-6 in 8th)

P4 Grid:

7: 1-2 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
8: 1-2 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 5-10 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
10: 8-9-12 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 xx .50 = $12
Backup: $12 (3-6 in 8th)

CROSS COUNTRY P5

Leg A: Belmont-Race 4 (2:34 pm) ~ G2 John Nerud (5)
Leg B: Delaware Park-Race 6 (3:00 pm) ~ G3 Delaware Oaks (8)
Leg C: Churchill Downs-Race 8 (4:35 pm) ~ G2 Fleur de Lis (5)
Leg D: Belmont-Race 8 (4:38 pm) ~ G3 Dwyer (6)
Leg E: Churchill Downs-Race 10 (5:47 pm) ~ G2 Stephen Foster (7)

X-C P5 Grid:

BEL 4: 1 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
DEL 6: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
CD 8: 1-4 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
BEL 8: 1-6 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
CD 10: 1-3 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x3x2x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)
All A's: 1x3x2x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)
.50 Backups: $12 (5 in BEL 4th) + $12 (2-3 in BEL 8th)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Tepin, 3yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Wicked Halo WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #1 Heartyconstitution 2nd

7th: American Derby, 3yo, 8.5f (.20 Derby City P6, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 McLaren Vale 4-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Rattle N Roll 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #3 Search Engine 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Kuchar 5-1 2nd

8th: Fleur de Lis (G2), F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

A repeat of her stunner at Pimlico, this time against Pauline's Pearl & Shedaresthedevil, would make Super Quick the summer facorite for the Distaff..

Most Likely: #1 Super Quick 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Pauline's Pearl 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Shedaresthedevil 9-2 WON ($4.80)

9th: Kelly's Landing, 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Heart Rhythm 15-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Bango 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Kneedeepinsnow 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Startdfromdbottom 30-1 7th

10th: Stephen Foster (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Caddo River 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Olympiad 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Mandaloun 2-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Americanrevolution 7-2 2nd

P5 Grid:

6: 4 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
7: 5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-4 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
9: 2-3-5 (A), 4-6-7 (B), - (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x2x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $12 (1 in 6th) + $6 (5 in 8th)

Good luck!
Steve