Derby Trail Forums - 5/28: Belmont ($43k P6 C/O); Churchill (7th-11th; X-C P5)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Tricky start to $43k P6 C/O sequence with C. Brown 2nd timer Chaberton moving to lawn and looking like potential lone speed. Note that Brown's other horse (Lakota Spirit) is also trying grass and though stakes-winning dam Milam wasn't a turfer, she is a half to Rushing Fall..

Best Value: #6 Chaberton 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Libretto 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Lakota Spirit 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #10 I'm Glad 7-2 10th

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Makin My Move 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Ready A.P. 9-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Tellaperfecttale 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Banker's Daughter 6-1 3rd

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

You know what season it is?? It's "NY breds long on the turf" season!!

Best Value: #6 Mr Breadwinner 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Breadman 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Son of an Ex 15-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Lord Flintshire 6-1 2nd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Highly Motivated 5-2 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #3 The Reds 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Stage Raider 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Captain Bombastic 10-1 7th

9th: Soaring Softly (G3), 3yo-F, 7f-T (DD)

Fun bunch..

Most Likely: #9 Derrynane 7-2 5th
Next Best: #12 Chardy Party 9-2 WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #3 Lost My Sock 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Breeze Easy 10-1 2nd

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f-Inner

Best Value: #10 Martinez 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Eminency 4-1 -
Exotics Use: #6 Two Down 9-2 WON ($)
Super Add: #8 Sharp Sensation 3-1 3rd

P6 Grid:

5: 1-6 (A), 10-12 (B), - (C)
6: 7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-6 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x1x1x3 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x1x1x3 = $24

P5 Grid:

6: 7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-6 (A), 4-5-8-9 (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-9-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x1x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 2-6-8 (A), 4-5-9 (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-9-12 (A), - (B), 2-10 (C)
10: 4-6-10 (A), 8-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x1x2x3 = 18 x .50 = $9

$0.50 Pick 4 (9/2,8/12/6,7,11) Paid $154.75

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Mr. Tip 8-1 6th
Best Value: #1 High Deff 15-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Eyes On Target 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Red Hornet 6-1 2nd

8th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Cross Country P5 Starts Here..

Most Likely: #4 War Campaign 6-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #10 Pioneering Spirit 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 Scotland Yard 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 My Romeo Lima 8-1 9th

Cross Country P5 Grid:

CD 8: 4-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
BEL 8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
BEL 9: 3-9-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
CD 10: 1-4 (A), 7-8-9 (B), - (C)
CD 11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x3x5x2 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

9th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Ebben 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Dennis' Moment 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Gun It 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #2 Awesome Gerry 2-1 WON ($7.20)

10th: Keertana, F&M-4+, 12f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Stand Tall 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 La Lune 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Undisturbed 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Temple City Terror 3-1 WON ($7.60)

11th: ALW/N2L, 3yo-F, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Ari Oakley 5-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Ontheonesandtwos 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Bali Dreamin 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Static Fire 5-1 WON ($16.40)

P5 Grid:

7: 1-5 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 6 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
10: 1-4-9 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (5 in 9th): 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 4-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-6 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
10: 1-4-9 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x2 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (2-3 in 9th): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve