4/8: Keeneland ~ Opening Day (4th-10th)
 

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Beholder/Mendelssohn/Into Mischief sister Marr Time (Not This Time) stretches out and A Mo Reay makes 3yo debut. Park On the Nile and Scratch Kat competitive here, but poorly drawn. 30-1 Glacken's Cause has run progressively in her last 2 on dirt. Kooky longshot that will save all the ground and finish in a race with pace up front..

Most Likely: #3 Malibu Marie 7-2 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #6 Marr Time 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Glacken's Cause 30-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 A Mo Reay 3-1 10th


5th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T ($1 P6, 5th-8th-10th KEE Turf P3, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 In Effect 6-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Supply Chain 3-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Ginsburned 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Healing 4-1 WON ($7.80)


$3 All Turf P3 Grid:

5: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
8: 2-5-6 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
10: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x1 = 12 x $3 = $36
All A's: 2x3x1 = 6 x $3 = $18
Backup: 2x3x1 = 6 x $3 = $18 (C-A-A)


6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

The ones that have experience look rather ordinary and firsters She's Keen (20-1), Luv Dragon (12-1) & Classic Coyne (10-1) all have siblings that had talent. Tough start to P5..

Best Value: #7 Classic Coyne 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Beravina 4-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 American Pyramid 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Luv Dragon 12-1 4th


7th: Lafayette, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Gaffalione will have to gain some position early from the rail, but Osbourne VERY dangerous cutting back to distance of maiden-breaker for country smart Moquett. 12-1? Sign me up. And note that Brett Brinkman, the man who brings you LA-bred GSW Cilla, has a sprinting fool in Old Homestead (20-1). May forget to stop.

Best Value: #1 Osbourne 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 My Prankster 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Old Homestead 20-1 WON ($21.80)
Super Add: #12 Tejano Twist 7-2 11th


8th: Transylvania (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Leepin' lizards.. This 6 pack is separated by about 2 lengths. Figure Saez will take control with Coinage and there's no one better meting out speed. Merits nod on slightest of edges..

Most Likely: #5 Coinage 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Verbal 2-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Napoleonic War 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Grand Sonata 5-2 2nd


9th: Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Interstatedaydream looks primed by Cox for stalk and pounce trip under Geroux..

Most Likely: #2 Interstatedaydream 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Cocktail Moments 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Awake At Midnyte 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Nest 2-1 WON ($5.40)


10th: ALW/N2X, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Bay Storm 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Blissful Change 6-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Illegal Smile 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Angel Palm 10-1 6th


P5 Grid:

6: 2-5-7 (A), 1-6-8 (B), 4-9-10 (C)
7: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-6 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
9: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 9 (A), - (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x6x2x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (C-A-A-A-A) + $18 (A-A-A-A-C)


P4 Grid:

7: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-6 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
9: 2-3-7 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
10: 1-9 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (A-A-A-C)


Good luck!
Steve

"Forgot to stop"..

thank you :tro:

Not to red board, but wasn’t he worth a C ?

:D:tro::$:

Absolutely was.. Even better than a C with the potential to wire just like that.

Very tricky sequences to build plays, at least for me. That MDN 6th proved out as a quagmire and the turf stake could have been any of them at the end. Nest seemed just one of the ones in the Ashland and the one you thought you could count on (Bay Storm in the 10th) found traffic. $320 in the P4 & $6470 in the P5.

Glad some benefited from Old Homestead spotlight.