Falls City 0 Thanksgiving Day.
 

Well lets see here....Summerly, Ermine, Sangrita and Joint Effort. Not a bad field at all.

Sangrita - Bejarano gets on board and the horse tries 1 1/8 for the 1st time. The last time she went longer than 1 mile was on 3/18/06 in the Florida Oaks and she finished 5th beaten easily. However, that was her 1st race after her maiden win. The last two beyers 98 and 97 are at the top of this field and this is her 3rd race in the form cycle. There should be plenty of speed in this race and I don't see her lasting the distance. For me she is a toss.

Summerly - Been running against the best in this division all year and has the class edge here. She has 2 wins and 1 third at the distance and 1 win and 1 third at Churchill. However, she is going to be near the lead and the pace will be very fast. Her top beyer is 96 back in Feb of 1995 so I believe she is not fast enough (anymore) to win this race.

Ermine - Well she has been at it since Jan of 2006. This is her 8th race this year. She gets Borel and maybe a wet track. Her beyer in her last race was 99 and that was in the slop. The time for the 1 1/16 was 1:45 not all that great. I think the beyer was a little inflated. I think she has "bounce" written all over her. This is her 3rd race in the cycle and she seems to like Churchill 3-1-2-0. She has the right running style since I think the race will be fast. I am throwing out her race in Indiana because I dont think she liked running at night. However, I think there are too many negatives surrounding her.

Joint Effort - Oh, how I LOVE this horse in this spot. I love finding little nuances in past performances. Nov 5th 2005 wins with a beyer of 94, she comes back and wins on Jan 28th 2006 with a beyer of 93. She thens throws in two clunkers. After the two clunkers she comes back and wins on May 6th and June 3rd with beyers of 103 and 96. Then she throws in two clunkers. Now she comes back after the two clunkers and runs 2nd in the Chilukki with a beyer of 94. The Falls City will be her 2nd race and looking at her pattern of running she is going to run another huge race. She loves Churchill 8-4-4-0. She is trained by Romans and riden by Guidry. The only negative is the distance. She has only gone over 1 mile twice and got beat both times. Once was the Alcibiades in Oct of 2005 and the other in the Mother Goose on July 1st 2006. I think she will be able to rate behind the pace setters and then make her move and draw away by 2.

I would like to set up a booth at Churchill and book all bets on Summerly.

Isnt that the truth.

It cracks me up when people think they see little nuances, any moron that can read a Form would know Joint Effort loves CD....

It is simply laughable that someone thinks they have found a nuance when any moron would know that Joint Effort loves CD...

What up with the tone?
 

Can't some one have an opinion without getting slapped in the face?
So what if it is obvious? May be it is maybe it isn't.
As i tell my 7 year old girl who is constantly provoking her little brother: if you can't say something nice don't say anything at all..... Can't we just let some things pass and left unsaid.

PSH

The nuance isnt that Joint Effort loves Churchill Downs. The nuance is running tWo good races and then two clunkerS and then two good races and then two clunkers.....She has ran once after two clunkers....this will be her 2nd which is in form with her PPs. Again, it is a nuance in running style that most people will get when reading the form. However, you didn't notice the nuance and since a moron can spot the nuance................

The nuance would be that she's run those clunkers at other tracks, she's a CD specialist, it's not surprising that she ran those bad races at other tracks, she loves CD...Think about it, she would run 2 races during the CD Meet and then ship out and run poorly...The only pattern is running well at CD...

I was just using Euro's quotes that he used earlier today to bash him, he deserved it...

Well thanks for proving my point. You said exactly what I said in my post. You can bash me all you want. I really dont mind. Whatever makes you feel better is fine with me.

5/2 ML on Summerly and 3-1 on Ermine. My gal Joint Effort is m/l 5-1. I dont see the odds fluctuating that much. But I will take 5-1.

I'll eat chalk and take Ermine. I like her at CD.

Sangrita emerged from that stakes race with a problem that necessitated the layoff. The race is proof of nothing, nor is any race that a horse emerges with a problem from.
She won very nicely last time, and is a half sister to Offlee Wild and Quandry, two horses who did their best running at two turns.
Shes also sharp and trained by a guy who knows how to get horses to stretch(and since his wife owns Sangrita I bet he'll give it his best try!!!)
She looks fresh and getting better where as some of the others appear to be here as an afterthought or because they are simply stabled at CD and teh race came up so they said what the hell.
Gimme Sangrita.

Loved her in the Oaks at 10-1 and thought she was going to get there, until Lemons Forever outclosed her.

Not sure what to make of her here, I'm inclined to downgrade that romp in the slop last out. 49 flat with no challenge whatsoever. She came home nicely, but what horse wouldn't?

I agree with Mike on Sangrita. She pressed the pace on a drying out, deep track the day after Ermine's romp in the slop. She seems to have matured into a different filly after the layoff and looks to be sitting on a big one third off that layoff.

She runs different at Churchill b/c Romans is a different trainer at Churchill.

I'm playing this 4. Euro: Give me a reason on why your filly gets the trip. Empirically, she has not enjoyed two bends, by ant measure, and genetically certainly not a slam dunk either. Additionally this race is a handicap (the racing secretary assigns weight to each nominee based on past performances) and you do not address the that issue. While at first glance, even in this very weak 132nd rendition, she appears hopeless to many, she is one of two that have run anywhere near the Beyer (102) par for this , I can't quite throw in the towel, but need more convincing. BBB

Well JE gets in at 115 lbs. Summerly is the highweight at 120. To me, the weight is a non-issue in this race. I dont have the PPs in fron of me but I will try to adress the trip tomorrow. How does that sound?

more importantly -- is summerly really like 13 years old?

her best beyer was achieved in 1995? WHOA, have i been missing out?!

This is why I think JE wins. Sangrita is the speed of the race and she is stretching out to 1 1/8 miles from a 6f and 1 mile race. I believe she has sprinter speed oppose to horses like Sea Siren, Cryptoquip and Summerly who have route speed. Now I believe that those 3 horses will put enough pressure on Sangrita to force to go faster than what she wants. I believe the fractions will be around :46 1:10 and that is too fast for this race. I believe that JE will get a perfect trip behind the top 5 leaders while being either on the rail or in the 2 path. This is her 2nd off a layoff and she ran a nice 2nd to Sangrita last time out. She was bumped at the 3/16ths pole and went 5 wide and only lost by 2. I think she is set up perfectly for a nice performance. Now I dont think she is the best horse in the race and we all know the best horse doesnt always win....but given how I think the race will play out and how she will improve from her last start equals a win for me. I will play my usual 100 Across on her.

Hey euro, you gonna be at Churchill for this one? I've been doing Thankgiving at the track for about the last ten years or so. They put on a nice spread.

Joint Effort doesn't look like a two-turn distance horse to me. No thanks.