Derby Trail Forums - 12/4: Aqueduct ($729,611 3-day P6 C/O)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Balanced group of turf routing juvy gals with at least 7 seemingly eligible for laurels. Another day with a demanding start to the P6 sequence..

Most Likely: #6 Rosebug 3-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Etheric 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Marketsegmentation 5-1 WON ($18.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Willakia 6-1 3rd

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Those that have started are a pretty nondescript group bunch, leading one to look towards firsters Fiery Heart (3-1), Chucka Moon (8-1) and even Stjames (20-1) as options..

Next Best: #2 Fiery Heart 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Chucka Moon 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Carpe's Dream 4-1 WON ($14.00)
SCR Alternate: #6 Urban Forest 5-2 2nd

7th: Go for Wand (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Seems like defending winner Sharp Starr (7-2) is going to be overlooked here after something of an incomplete campaign, but her prep in the Empire Distaff sets her up identically to the way she approached last's Go for Wand..

Best Value: #7 Sharp Starr 7-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Lady Rocket 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Bella Vita 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Miss Marissa 4-1 6th

8th: Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Mo Donegal 8-5 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #4 Fromanothamutha 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Zandon 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Judge Davis 5-1 8th

9th: Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Nest 2-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #7 Magic Circle 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Venti Valentine 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Tap the Faith 3-1 5th

10th: Cigar Mile H. (G1), 3+, 1m

Fascinating edition of this season wind down standard, dotted with contender performances that can win. Key is whether Following Sea receives pace pressure (Pipeline? Ginobili?) or is allowed to cruise up front from inside blast off draw. One-two when last seen in the Fayette, Independence Hall (WinStar) and Code of Honor (Lane's End) look to end careers gloriously here. Michael McCarthy has proven adept at getting peak efforts in target events and Independence Hall earned early 3yo attention on this oval when Mike Trombetta directed him to the '19 Nashua-'20 Jerome double. Code of Honor has had a distinguished enough career going longer, but the case can be made that this trip is what he was born to do. And speaking of one turn mile aptitude, be aware that Plainsman is 6/2-3-0 at 8f with the wins coming at CD in a sharp Ack Ack effort 8 weeks ago and right here at the Big A in a 2018 ALW. (He also won the Discovery 3 weeks later). Superb race and tricky way to end the giant carryover sequence that should draw another at least another $1.5-2.0MM..

Most Likely: #5 Independence Hall 7-2 7th
Best Value: #4 Code of Honor 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Following Sea 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Plainsman 12-1 3rd

P6 Grid:

5: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
6: 2-3 (A), 5-6 (B), 7-8 (C)
7: 2-7 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 5-7 (A), - (B), 1-3-6 (C)
10: 5 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x1x2x3 = $144
All A's: 3x2x2x1x2x1 = $24
Backups (+$148): $16 (1-5) + $24 (7-8) + $24 (1-3) + $48 (4-7) + $36 (1-3-6)

$1 Pick-6 (3/5/2,4/1/5/3) Paid $27.75 (5 OF 6) x 3 = $83.25

P5 Grid:

6: 2-3-5 (A), 6-7-8 (B), - (C)
7: 2-7 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
8: 1 (A), 4 (B), 7 (C)
9: 5-7 (A), - (B), 1-3-6 (C)
10: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (1-3) + $18 (7) + $27 (1-3-6)

P4 Grid:

7: 2-7 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
8: 1-4 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
9: 3-5-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
10: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 2-3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (1-3) + $18 (1-3-6)

$0.50 Pick-4 (2,4/1/5/3) Paid $29.62

Good luck!
Steve