Derby Trail Forums - 10/21: Belmont Park (5th-9th)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Mahaamel looked early on like he was going to be a serious horse for Shadwell, but went sideways after encountering Beau Liam upstate. Shows up here for Repole/Viola after private purchase and while the 5-2 favorite, is just one of the players to consider..

Best Value: #7 Scocciatore 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Wudda You Think Now 3-1 WON ($7.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Perfect Munnings 3-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Risk Profile 5-1 3rd

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Blue Atlas 3-1 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #3 Champagne Horizon Late (1:32p) SCR
Next Best: #2 Bee Bit 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Five Alarm Robin 2-1 3rd

5th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Funky 'auction limit' race ($45k or less) which lures 3 NY breds (Thrill of It, Safalow's mission, Koosman) and Bill Morey (Florida Gator) in from KY..

Most Likely: #7 Safalow's Mission 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Florida Gator 6-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #3 Thrill of It 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Doctor Davis 9-2 8th

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Flop Shot 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Value Engineering 7-2 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #8 Farmington Road 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Shamrocket Late (12:20p) SCR

7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Quite a bit of pedigree power involved here including a couple Irish Sea (Honor Code o/o Irish Jasper) & Vodka Mardini (Bernardini o/o Hot City Girl) that have underwhelmed in pairs of starts so far. Dutrow second timer Predicted a full to Sweet Loretta..

Most Likely: #6 Mo Donegal 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #1 Irish Sea 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Fromanothamutha 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Predicted 6-1 6th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Bodecream 5-2 WON ($5.30)
Best Value: #6 Soulmate 12-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Doswell 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Attentive 8-1 5th

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner

Best Value: #5 Unicorn Sally 6-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Marvelous Maude 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #12 Sweet Franny Lu 2-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Miss Jen 12-1 10th

P5 Grid:

5: 7-8 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-3 (B), 4-8 (C)
8: 1-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-5-12 (A), - (B), 10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (3) + $18 (4-8) + $6 (10)

$0.50 LATE PICK 5 (8/3/6/1,5/1,7,8) Paid $507.75 (A-C-A-A-A)

P4 Grid:

6: 1 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-3 (B), 4-8 (C)
8: 1-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-5-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x2x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $12 (4-8)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (3/6/1,5/1,7,8) Paid $52.25

Good luck!
Steve