Derby Trail Forums - 10/8: Keeneland (Opening Day ~ 2nd, 6th-10th)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

New $3 Turf P3 (last 3 turf races of card) introduced here and it's a VERY difficult maiden group to consider with three quarters having run and 3 more (Wake Surf/Arnold, Afternoon Anejo/Asmussewn, Minnesota Ready/Pessin) making debuts toting significant black type pedigrees. Siding with those that have run, but keep an eye on that trio going forward, as well as the toteboard for clues..

Most Likely: #9 Run 'n Tonic 4-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Star Shopping 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Gingrich 9-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Steinbeck 9-2 6th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Another tricky maiden set to start the P5..

Most Likely: #8 Fannie and Freddie 6-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Twirling Savi 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Halo of Fire 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Social Matrix 3-1 6th

7th: ALW/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Kentucky Ghost 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Beacon Hill 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Crossfire Hurricane 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Dynadrive 4-1 4th

8th: Phoenix (G2), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Aloha West 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Just Might 9-2 -
Next Best: #6 Special Reserve 9-5 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Endorsed 6-1 4th

9th: Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #10 Penny Saver 4-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Dream Lith 15-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Distinctlypossible 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Matareya 4-1 5th

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Camp Hope 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #10 Buy Me Candy 8-1
Next Best: #9 Red Hornet 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Wing Commander 15-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Modern Science 7-2 10th

$3 Turf P3 Grid:

2: 4-9 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
7: 4 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
10: 1-9-10 (A), - (B), 2-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3 = 24 x $3 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3 = 6 x $3 = $18
Backup: 2-12 in 10th (2x1x2 = 4 x $3 = $12)

P5 Grid:

6: 4-8 (A), 5-6 (B), 11-12 (C)
7: 4 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
8: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-10 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
10: 1-9-10 (A), - (B), 2-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (11-12 in 6th) + $18 (6 in 7th) + $12 (2-12 in 10th)

P4 Grid:

7: 4-6 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-10 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
10: 1-9-10 (A), 2-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (3-5 in 7th)

Good luck!
Steve