Derby Trail Forums - 10/2: Belmont (7th-11th); Churchill (7th-11th); Santa Anita (7th-11th)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Albie 9-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Hilliard 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Lord Flintshire 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 High Tide 8-1 3rd

8th: Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 My Prankster 5-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Jack Christopher 9-5 WON ($5.30)
Best Value: #5 Gunite 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Wit 2-1 3rd

BC Challenge 2-day P6 Grid:

SAT BEL 8: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)
SAT SA 8: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT SA 9: 4-8 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
SAT SA 10: 7 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
SUN BEL 9: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
SUN SA 9: 2-5 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x2x1x2 = $96
All A's: 3x2x2x1x1x2 = $24
Backups: $16 (1-6) + $24 (3-8)

9th: BEL Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Pulsate 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Chewing Gum 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Arrest Me Red 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Therapist 9-2 5th

10th: Woodward (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Code of Honor 5-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Maxfield 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Art Collector 3-1 WON ($7.50)
Super Add: #6 Forza Di Oro 5-1 6th

11th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f-T

Crazy finale but take particular note of the players that are getting back to lawn after rain took them off turf..

Most Likely: #1 Boom Boom Kaboom 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Sandor Clegane 10-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Hot Doctor 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Beau Brown 12-1 7th

P5 Grid:

7: 7 (A), 1-5-9 (B), - (C)
8: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-9 (A), - (B), 3-5-7-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $45 (3-5-7-10-11)

P4 Grid:

8: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-9 (A), 7-10-11 (B), 3-4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $36 (3-4-5)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th (3:50p ET): MSW, 2yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Trafalgar 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #3 Almuahed 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Brigadier General 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Mahoney Road 12-1 3rd

8th: Lukas Classic (G3), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Knicks Go 2-5 WON ($2.20)
Best Value: #4 Shared Sense 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Tacitus 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Independance Hall 10-1 2nd

9th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

One of the day's most interesting, betable events and wide net needed for the P-X's. Pace looks fast..

Best Value: #4 Compelling Smile 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Himiko 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Grand Cru Classe 7-2 8th
Super Add: #2 Jilted Bride 8-1 2nd

10th: Ack Ack (G3), 3+, 1m (DD)

Was a little surprised on ATR Wknd Prvw that there wasn't more acclamation for Beau Liam coming in to this stakes debut. Suppose he has to answer 'class' and distance questions, but extension of May-August efforts sure projects well here. Plainsman, Aloha West (SCR'D) & Rushie are very viable alternatives and at 15-1, Ebben (SCR'D) intrigues with Margolis showing unusual aggression placing quality veteran in this spot for seasonal debut..

Most Likely: #10 Beau Liam 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Plainsman 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #11 Rushie 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Exculpatory 10-1 6th

11th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Amani's Eagle 8-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Calibrate 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Happy American 12-1 WON ($42.80)
Super Add: #10 Runnin' Ray 3-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #11 Carillo 8th

P5 Grid:

7: 11 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-8 (A), 2-3-9 (B), - (C)
10: 10 (A), - (B), 7-11 (C)
11: 3-7-9-10 (A), 1-4-6-11 (B), 5-8-9-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x1x6x1x8 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 1x1x3x1x4 = $12 ($6 for .50)
.50 Backups: $12 (7-11) + $6 (5-8-9-12)

P4 Grid:

8: 2 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
9: 1-4-8 (A), 2-3-9 (B), - (C)
10: 7-10 (A), - (B), 11 (C)
11: 3-7-9-10 (A), 1-4-6-11 (B), 5-8-9-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x3x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $6 (11) + $12 (5-8-9-12)

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

7th (6:34p ET): OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Very contentious start to the P5. There looks to be a copious amount of pace involved here..

Most Likely: #10 Secret Club 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #13 First Premio 4-1 5th
Best Value: #2 U.S. Danger 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Lincoln Hawk 6-1 8th

8th: SA Sprint Ch. (G2), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Vertical Threat 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 C Z Rocket 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Dr. Schivel 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #4 Flagstaff 7-2 2nd

9th: Rodeo Drive (G1), F&M-10f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Going to Vegas 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #8 Luck 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Magic Attitude 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Dogtag 4-1 3rd

10th: Awesome Again (G1), 3+, 9f (SA-GG P4, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Tripoli 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Medina Spirit 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Tizamagician 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Azul Coast 12-1 7th

11th: John Henry Turf Ch. (G2), 3+, 10f-T (SA-GG DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Count of Amazonia 12-1 10th
Next Best: #4 United 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Master Piece 5-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Camino Del Paraiso 15-1 11th

P5 Grid:

7: 10 (A), 2-13 (B), - (C)
8: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-7-8 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
11: 4-7-8 (A), - (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $9 (1) + $6 (2)

P4 Grid:

8: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-7-8 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
11: 4-7-8 (A), 2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $9 (1)

Good luck!
Steve