Derby Trail Forums - 8/28: Saratoga (Day 33 ~ 152nd Travers)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 43rd Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Pretty paceless group and note that everyone in the field comes off Lasix except favored Viadera..

Most Likely: #3 Viadera 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #6 Kalifornia Queen 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Platinum Paynter 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Tamahere 7-2 4th

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Whittington Park 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #6 Brady's Legacy 3-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Bointheback 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Miracle Nicky 8-1 8th

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Colton's Command 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Shiraz 3-1 9th
Best Value: #10 Christopher 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Big Package 5-2 WON ($7.40)

7th: 43rd Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Gamine 3-5 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #3 Casual 15-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Ce Ce 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lake Avenue 12-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

4: 3-5-6 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C)
5: 4 (A), - (B), 6-9 (C)
6: 7-9-10 (A), 1-11 (B), - (C)
7: 1-3 (A), 7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x1x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup #1 (6-9 in 5th): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (3/4,5/2,4,5,11,12/1) Paid $17.25

8th: 42nd Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (All G1 P5, P3, DD)

Second of the G1 7f trio and Yaupon figures controlling speed. 7th furlong the only question. Mind Control ultra consistent and well proven at trip and on strip. Chance It (20-1) is the price to play coming up from Florida in Summit of Speed style. Whitmore always fires..

Most Likely: #4 Mind Control 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Chance It 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Yaupon 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Whitmore 4-1 5th

9th: 37th Allen Jerkens (G1), 3yo, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Life Is Good gets advantage of outside open air for stalking trip v. Jackie's Warrior who may also deal early with forced-to-go Drain the Clock. Following Sea turns back and could be beneficiary of garden trip behind the pace-interested trio. This should be quite a spectacle..

Most Likely: #6 Life Is Good 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Following Sea 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Jackie's Warrior 1-1 WON ($5.10)

P4 Grid:

6: 7-9-10 (A), 1-11 (B), - (C)
7: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 1-2-3-5 (C)
9: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x3 = $45 ($27.50 for each .50)
All A's: 3x1x3x3 = 27 x .50 = $13.50
Backup (1-2-3-5 in 8th): 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$1 Pick-4 (2,4,5,11,12/1/7/2) Paid $46.50 ($23.25 for .50)

10th: 72nd Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

This very well could turn out to be the best race of the day. Letruska and As Time Goes By are the speeds and one or the other could survive, while back-to-dirt Harvey's Lil Goil and ultra consistent Royal Flag are the midpack pouncers at square prices. And there are certainly others for which to make a case. Superb event..

Most Likely: #2 As Time Goes By 6-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Harvey's Lil Goil 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Letruska 6-5 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #5 Royal Flag 10-1 3rd

11th: 47th Sword Dancer (G1), 4+, 12f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tribhuvan 2-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Japan 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Gufo 3-1 WON ($7.10)
Super Add: #7 Cross Border 4-1 3rd

12th: 152nd Travers (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD)

If you look to conjure a scenario to beat Essential Quality, it seem Midnight Bourbon wiring is the one. After that, it's hard to deny the nearly perfect Tapit colt here..

Most Likely: #2 Essential Quality 4-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #1 Midnight Bourbon 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Masqueparade 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Dynamic One 6-1 7th

P5 Grid:

8: 4-6-7 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-8 (A), 5-6 (B), 3-4-9 (C)
11: 1-6 (A), 2 (B), 3-7 (C)
12: 2 (A), - (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3x4x3x1 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $27 (3-4-9) + $18 (3-7)

$0.50 Pick-5 (7/2/6/2/2) Paid $73.62

Good luck!
Steve