8/5: Saratoga (Day 16; Birdstone)
 

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Wartime Hero 4-5 WON ($3.30)
Next Best #8 Z'finale 4-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Assembly Point 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Chase Tracker 8-1 2nd


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD

Late P5/P4 sequences particularly attractive today with uncertain babies lining up here and vulnerable favorites in the 7th & 8th. With very logical types seemingly in control of the 9th & 10th, spreading around early should be the approach..

Best Value: #4 Open Til Midnight 8-1: Inclined to be bullish on Midnight Storm 1st crop.. 3rd
Next Best: #5 No Time Alone 7-5: Ward/Rosario 3rd timer perked up on grass in last.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Endromos 10-1: 'Country Dick' Lugovich a clever operator.. 5th
Super Add: #2 Disengage 5-2: Meh.. 4th


7th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Thoroughly open with favored Landbiscuit just OK. There are 5,040 super combos in a 10 horse field and every one of them are possible here..

Most Likely: #5 Mr. Kringle 6-1 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #8 Bad Guy 10-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Life On Top 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Mystery Bank 6-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Calibogee 10-1 3rd


8th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Another vulnerable fave in Our Man Mike..

Best Value: #2 Quick Return 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Irish Valor 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Our Man Mike 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Bustin the Rules 6-1 7th


9th: Birdstone, 4+, 14f (DD)

Lone Rock streaking with Diodoro conversion to 12f+ specialist..

Most Likely: #3 Lone Rock 1-1 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #4 Moretti 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Rocketry 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Ry's the Guy 8-1 5th


10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Best Value: #5 Lookin to Fly 9-2 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #1 Bella Principessa 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Escapewithfriends 7-2 8th
Super Add: #3 Mondeuse 9-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

6: 4-5-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-8 (C)
7: 5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-4 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
10: 1-5 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (1-2-8 in 6th) + $18 (4 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

7: 5-8-9 (A), 2-3-7 (B), - (C)
8: 2-4 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), 1-4-6-7 (C)
10: 1-5 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $24 (1-4-6-7 in 9th)


Good luck!
Steve