Derby Trail Forums - 7/17: Saratoga (Day 3); Monmouth (Haskell Day ~ .20 X-C P6)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Special Mandatory Pay P5 Starts Here..

Best Value: #3 The Golden Door 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Matty's Express 6-1 WON ($23.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Austrian 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Grape Nuts Warrior 7-2 4th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Shug unveils $550k Covfefe half #7 Montauk Point here, but 5.5f may be too sharp. Detroit City has advantage of a start under his belt and real speed that may blitz this set. 8-1 and we should get it with some of the connex involved here..

Best Value: #4 Detroit City 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Chattalot 9-5 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Uninvited Guest 4-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Seal Beach 6-1 3rd

6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT ($1 P6, P3, DD)

Brown/Klaravich debut full brother to Charming Kitten & Queens Plate Kitten in Portfolio Company..

Most Likely: #4 Portfolio Company 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #5 Never Say Know 9-2 4th
Best Value: #10 Great Britain 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 James Aloysius 6-1 2nd

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Duress 5-1 10th
Next Best: #1e Ownership entry 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Gear Jockey 8-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Battle Station 6-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Thoroughly fabulous group with huge implications for Jerkens and Travers too. May turn out to be best race of the day anywhere. I;'m not kidding..

Best Value: #5 Ten for Ten 8-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Beau Liam 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #10 Crowded Trade Gate SCR
Super Add: #7 Witsel 8-1 2nd

Special Mandatory Pay P5 Grid:

4: 3-9 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
8: 1-5-10/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (5 in 6th): 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (9/8,9/3,4,11,12/8/1,2,10) Paid $561.50 x 2 = $1,123.00

MTH 8th: Monmouth Cup (G3), 3+, 9f (.20 Shore P6, P3, DD)

.20 Cross Country P6 Starts Here..

Most Likely: #7 Bankit 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Ny Traffic 7-5 4th
Best Value: #1 Bal Harbour 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Night Ops 3-1 2nd

MTH 10th: Molly Pitcher (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Our Super Freak 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Vault 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Bank Sting Gate SCR
Super Add: #6 Bajan Girl 9-2 2nd

MTH 11th: United Nations (G1), 3+, 11f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Way too many people are landing on Fantasioso for him to win..

Best Value: #5 Fantasioso 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Arklow 8-5 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Master Piece 4-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Tribhuvan 3-1 WON ($5.40)

SAR 9th: Sanford (G3), 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Expect a scramble with giant field which gives off-the-pace debut winner Ottoman Empire a big chance to run them down at a square price....

Best Value: #7 Ottoman Empire 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Wit 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Headline Report 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Maryland Brando 10-1 10th

MTH 12th: Haskell (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Following Sea 3-1 2nd-Up via DQ
Next Best: #4 Hot Rod Charlie 6-5 6th-DQ'd from Win
Exotics Use: #6 Midnight Bourbon 9-2 DNF-Clipped Heels
Super Add: #3 Mandaloun 2-1 WON-Up via DQ ($8.20)

10th: Diana (G1), F&M-4+, 9f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #6 Summer Romance 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Harvey's Lil Goil 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Althiqa 3-1 WON ($9.90)
Super Add: #7 Lemista 5-2 8th

.20 X-C P6 Grid:

MTH 8: 4-7
MTH 10: 1-3
MTH 11: 1-5
SAR 10: 1-7-9
MTH 12: 1-3-4-6
SAR 11: 5-6-7-8

.20 PLAY: 2x2x2x3x4x4 = 384 x .20 = $76.80

11th: MSW, 3+, 7f

Best Value: #2 Cool Quest 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Askin for a Baskin 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Ducale 7-2 WON ($$3.60)
Super Add: #4 Southern Flag 9-2 4th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-6 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
8: 1-5-10/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-7 (A), 9 (B), 6 (C)
10: 5-6 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $12 (6) + $24 (7-8) + $24 (4-7)

P4 Grid:

8: 1-5-10/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-7-9 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
10: 5-6 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $6 (6)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,2,10/1,3/8/3,7,9) Paid $27.25

Good luck!
Steve