Derby Trail Forums - 7/10: Belmont Park (P6 C/O; X-C P5)

BELMONT PARK (P6 C/O; X-C P5)

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$59k P6 C/O starts here..

As always, and especially notable as we head to Saratoga, the NY-bred turf ALW division regularly provides prime value play opportunities with very little separating top contenders from price candidates..

Most Likely: #11 Danfusi 6-1 8th
Best Value: #9 Rift Valley 8-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Dr. Blute 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Saratoga Flash 8-1 3rd

5th (3:15p): Robert Dick (G3), F&M-3+, 11f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very good ~ and tricky ~ start to the day's stakes action..

Most Likely: #5 Temple City Terror 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Luck Money 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Dalika 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Micheline 5-2 7th

7th: Belmont Oaks (G1), 3yo, 10f-Inner Turf (P5, P3, DD)

Santa Barbara filly to beat, yes, but several come in lightly-raced and forward-moving (Higher Truth, Gam's Mission) or fully-credentialed and within reach (Plum ali, Con Lima, Spanish Loveaffair)..

Most Likely: #5 Santa Barbara 1-1 WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #7 Plum Ali 7-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Spanish Loveaffair 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Gam's Mission 8-1 4th

8th: Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Ova Charged WILL run and adds to solid pace scenario..

Best Value: #4 Ova Charged 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Miss Brazil 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Australasia 2-1 7th

9th: Belmont Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f-Inner Turf (P3, DD)

Bolshoi Ballet likeliest winner coming off huge Epsom Derby disappointment, but as in the Oaks, there are accomplished and progressive domestic foes lined up..

Most Likely: #2 Bolshoi Ballet 7-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #8 Cellist 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Hard Love 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Hidden Enemy 30-1 9th

9th: Delaware H. (G2), F&M-3+, 10f (DD)

Bonny South looms large here having chased Letruska home in the Phipps..

Most Likely: #5 Bonny South 3-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Dream Marie 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Queen Nekia 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Miss Marissa 6-1 WON ($11.40)

Cross Country P5 Grid:

DEL 5: 5-7-8 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
BEL 7: 5 (A), 7 (B), 4-8 (C)
BEL 8: 3-4-7 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
BEL 9: 2-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-9 (C)
DEL 9: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x3x1 = $108 ($54 for .50)
All A's: 3x1x3x3x1 = $27 ($13.50 for .50)
Backups: $27 (4-8) + $4.50 (5) + $9 (1-9)

10th: MSW, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #11 Deregulation 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Migrate 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Ranger Fox 9-5 WON ($5.10)
Super Add: #9 Everesting 5-1 4th

11th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #11 Noble Thought 6-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Boru 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Rejected Again 6-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Outrageous Bet 15-1 WON ($43.80)

P6 Grid:

6: 9-11 (A), 5-6 (B), 3-8 (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-7 (A), - (B), 1/SCR-4 (C)
9: 2 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
10: 8-11 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
11: 11-12 (A), - (B), 5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x2x3x2x2 = $96
All A's: 2x1x2x1x2x2 = $16
Backups: $16 (3-8) + $16 (1-4) + $8 (3) + $8 (5)

P5 Grid:

7: 5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
8: 3-7 (A), 1/SCR-4 (B), - (C)
9: 2-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 11-12 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (7)

P4 Grid:

8: 3-7 (A), 1/SCR-4 (B), 5 (C)
9: 2-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8-11 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
11: 11-12 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $9 (5) + $6 (9)

Good luck!
Steve