4/30: Churchill Downs ~ 147th Kentucky Oaks Day
 

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 147TH OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Mucho Macho Momma 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Favorite Sin 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Powder River 7-2 WON ($12.60)
Super Add: #2 Pop a Choc 3-1 3rd


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Musical Cat 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Anamuya 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Love in the Air SCR
Super Add: #2 Front Street 5-1 5th


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Australasia 4-1 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #5 Zainalarab 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Amalfi Princess 7-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Rookery 4-1 7th


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 American West 3-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Illiogami 9-2 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #10 Another Woman 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Tabor Hall 8-1 2nd


5th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Temple 5-1 4th
Next Best: 10 Spooky Channel 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Big Dreaming 10-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Ever Dangerous 5-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 7-8 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
3: 4 (A), - (B), 2-5-7 (C)
4: 2-3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x3x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54


P4 Grid:

2: 1-2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 4 (A), 5 (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 2-3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x1x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 4x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


6th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (.20 Derby City P6, )

Most Likely: #6 Maxfield 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #5 Roadster 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Sonneman 5-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Chess Chief 5-1 3rd


7th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Aunt Pearl 4-5 5th
Best Value: #1 Postnup 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Gift List 7-2 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Queen of the Green 10-1 4th


P5 Grid:

3: 4 (A), 5 (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 2-3-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
6: 6 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
7: 6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x1x1 = $32
All A's: 1x4x2x1x1 = $8
Backups: $8 (2-7) + $8 (2-5) + $8 (1-2)


P4 Grid:

4: 2-3-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
6: 6 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
7: 6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x1 = $48
All A's: 4x2x1x1 = $8
Backups: $8 (1-2)


8th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f $2 G1 2-Day P6, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Shedaresthedevil 8-5 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #3 Dunbar Road 5-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Sanenus 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Finite 5-1 3rd


$2 G1 2-Day P6 Grid:

FRI 8: 2 (A), - (B), 3 (C) ~ La Troienne
FRI 11: 10 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks
SAT 7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Distaff
SAT 10: 5-9 (A), 7-12 (B), - (C) ~ Churchill Downs
SAT 11: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Kentucky Derby

Simple (A+B): 1x3x1x4x3x3 = 108 x $2 = $216
All A's: 1x1x1x2x3x3 = 18 x $2 = $36
Backups: $36 (1-2-5)


9th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Half the field turns back here which should make for a madcap scramble when mixed in with the sprinters. And though it's deep water for a seasonal debut, I'm not dismissing Dayoutoftheoffice completely off sharp works with Into Mischiefs eligible to make big strides from 2 to 3..

Best Value: #12 Caramel Swirl 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Slumber Party 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Dayoutoftheoffice 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Li'l Tootsie 8-1 6th


10th: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Fast Boat 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #3 Fiya 3-1 11th
Best Value: #11 Carotari 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Diamond Oops 5-1 4th


11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks/Turf Classic Derby P3, Oaks/Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5)

While still on the development curve, hoping Malathaat is ready right now to elevate herself further in this setting. And given her proximity in the Ashland, Pass the Champagne looks like the right alternate win candidate at a price. Hard to avoid respect for for Travel Column and Clairiere and Crazy Beautiful has been the single most exciting morning presence male or female preparing for the weekend. After that "Hi-5", there are several that would be no surprise in any pay slot including Millefeuille and Search Results of course. While the overall quality of the sophomore filly set is still in flux, this is an outstanding race in terms of how well-matched they are as a group right now..

Most Likely: #10 Malathaat 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #5 Pass the Champagne 15-1 12th
Next Best: #6 Travel Column 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Crazy Beautiful 15-1 10th
Super/Hi-5: #3 Clairiere 5-1 4th


Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 5-6-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-12 (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks
SAT 11: 3-4-6 (A), 1-2-5 (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), - (B), 1-8-9-11 (C) ~ Kentucky Derby

Simple (A+B): 3x6x3 = $54 ($27 for .50)
All A's: 3x3x3 = $27 ($13.50 for .50)
Backups (.50): $13.50 (3-4-12) + $18 (1-8-9-11)


Oaks/Derby DBL:

FRI 11: 5-6-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-12 (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks
SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), - (B), 1-8-9-11 (C) ~ Kentucky Derby

Simple (A+B): 3x3 = 18 x $3 = $54
Backup: $9 (3-4-12) + $12 (1-8-9-11)


.20 Derby City P6 Grid:

6: 6 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), - (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), - (C)
11: 10 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x6x4x1 = $86.40
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2x1 = $7.20
Backup: $14.20 (5-6)

$0.20 Pick-6 (6/2/2/7/8/7,10) Paid $2,273.30


P5 Grid:

7: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), - (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), 1-10 (C)
11: 10 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (1-10) + $36 (5-6)

$0.50 Pick-5 (2/2/7/8/7,10) Paid $3,310.45


P4 Grid:

8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), - (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), 1-10 (C)
11: 5-6-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (1-10) + $18 (3-4-12)

$0.50 Pick-4 (2/7/8/7,10) Paid $384.65


12th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 More Than Unusual 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Alnaseem 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Mintd 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Choate Bridge 4-1 9th


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f

Most Likely: #3 Magic Quest 9-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Lonely June 15-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Played Hard 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Liberty Isle 9-2 5th


P5 Grid:

9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), - (C)
10: 3-8 (A), - (B), 9-11 (C)
11: 10 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
12: 8-10 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
13: 3-9 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x1x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x2x1x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $12 (9-11) + $24 (5-6)


P4 Grid:

10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), - (C)
11: 10 (A), - (B), 3-4-5-6-12 (C)
12: 8-10 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
13: 2-3-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x4 = 64 x .50 = $32
All A's: 2x1x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backups: $40 (3-4-5-6-12)


Good luck!
Steve

Early SCR's for Friday's Oaks card:

Race 3: 3
Race 5: 3, 5, 8, 11
Race 11: 7
Race 12: 5, 14-18
Race 13: 13

Thanks Steve and good luck!

Do you have Midnight Bourbon (#10) as an A in the Derby or is that supposed to be Medina Spirit (#8)?

THX Mose.. Midnight Bourbon.

Thanks.

very nice Steve...awesome job :$::$::$::tro:

Great work Steve

Terrific job.

Congrats Steve :tro::$:

Congrats Steve! Great handicapping.

Great work Steve :tro:

Bravo Steve!! Your the man!

Great work today Steve

Thank You
 

Call me "Copy Cat Tom' Thanks for a very big day and I am live in all The two days to a lot of big bombs and more!:$::)

Great job Steve.

Thanks so much guys.. The afternoon kept gaining momentum. Hope many benefited! Incredibly proud of how the ATR lineup delivered a steady stream of invaluable info towards wagering success.

More work to do though! Have to pick Tina up at the airport now and will get the Saturday finished soon as I can.

Congrats! Great job on the Pk5. Well played. Best of luck on Derby say,

Wow! Awesome ticket structure. Great job Steve.

Gus.. THX buddy. Let's get some more today!