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-   -   4/7: Keeneland (5th-8th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=69363)

Kasept 04-07-2021 06:39 AM

4/7: Keeneland (5th-8th)
 
KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Entire group is separated by perhaps 3 lengths with very little pace signed on. While Maker, Lynch, McGaughey, Mott, Sisterson & Motion all have eligible players, I'm intrigued by 20-1 Kitsie SCR'D who stretches out and moves to the grass. Dam was a CBY/TuP stakes type for owner/breeder that went long on lawn and Uncle Mo line sire Outwork gets 17% first turf winners.

Best Value: #6 Never Consent 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Munnyfor Ro 4-1 WON ($15.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Perhaps Tonight 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Third Draft 7-2 2nd


6th: OC/S-ALW, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Based on last 2, Diodoro's Don't Forget looks thoroughly imposing..

Most Likely: #4 Don't Forget 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Savage Nation 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Malpais 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #1 Joyful Heart 12-1 5th


7th: ALW/N2X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (DD, Hi-5)

Tuned (7-2) draws better than the wide candidates (8-9-10-11-12-13) and gets Rosario..

Most Likely: #3 Tuned 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #10 More Good Times 10-1 9th
Next Best: #11 Pocket Square 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #8 In a Hurry 8-1 10th


8th: OC/S-ALW, 4+, 7f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Stay Home 4-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #1 (POE) Long On Luck 4-1 7th/9th
Best Value: #2 Seventy Seventycat 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 High Five Cotton 5-2 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #6 Ike 7-2 11th


P4 Grid:

5: 5-6-7 (A), - (B), 3-8-9 (C)
6: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-8-10-11 (A), 9-12-13 (B), - (C)
8: 1-2-3 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x7x5 = 105 x .50 = $52.50
All A's: 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (5th-3-8-9): $18


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 04-07-2021 11:28 AM

KEE SCR/CHG'S


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