Derby Trail Forums - 2/6: Tampa Bay Downs (8th-12th); Aqueduct (7th-8th; X-C P5)

TAMPA BAY DOWNS ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Tampa Bay (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Interesting group and countless price options, so try to be creative and aggressive. Armistice Day (10-1) can fire fresh and best turf tries contend..

Best Value: #11 Armistice Day 10-1 11th
Next Best: #10 Fancy Liquor 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Admission Office 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Sole Volante 15-1 9th

AQUEDUCT 7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Cross Country P5 Starts Here..

On paper, Mabel Island way the filly to beat, but she's never won 2 in a row reacting negatively to every big effort.

Most Likely: #2 Fair Lassie 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Ifihadachance 5-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Mabel Island 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Ellarella 7-2 6th

TAMPA 9th: Suncoast, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Feeling Mischief 9-2: SCR of the 2 faves makes her the one to catch, beat.. 5th
Next Best: #9 Il Malocchio 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Be Sneaky 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Special Princess 8-1 4th

AQUEDUCT 8th: Withers (G3), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #1 Shackqueenking 10-1: 9f will suit with best efforts coming around 2 turns.. 8th
Next Best: #5 Risk Taking 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Royal Number 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Capo Kane 3-1 3rd

TAMPA 10th: Endeavour (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Counterparty Risk 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #6 New York Girl 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Iron of Reality 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Kelsey's Cross 6-1 6th

TAMPA 11th: Sam F. Davis (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Pairs from Pletcher & Mott merit plenty of respect, but note race has had only 1 successful fave ($5 McCraken in '17) in last 5 runnings with average winner in the 7-1 range. And as has been widely cited, Known Agenda won't be 6-1..

Best Value: #6 Runway Magic 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Known Agenda 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Nova Rags 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Hidden Stash 10-1 3rd

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

AQU 7: 2-4-6 (A), 1-3-5-7 (B), - (C)
TAM 9: 2 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
AQU 8: 1-2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
TAM 10: 5 (A), - (B), 3-6-7-8 (C)
TAM 11: 3-6 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 7x1x4x1x4 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A's: 3x1x4x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: $12 (9) + $48 (3-6-7-8)

12th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 7f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Free Flayme 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Indy Ride 5-1 WON-Up via DQ ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Shakem N Breakem 12-1 5th
Super Add: #10 First Degree 4-1 4th

P5 Grid:

8: 2-10-11 (A), 5-9 (B), - (C)
9: 2 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
10: 5-6-8 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
12: 3-7 (A), - (B), 5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x4x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (9) + $12 (3-7) + $18 (5-10)

P4 Grid:

9: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-6-8 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
12: 3-5-7 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $12 (3-7)

Good luck!
Steve