Derby Trail Forums - 6/27: Thistledown (OH Derby, X-C P5); Belmont (P5); Churchill (P5)

THISTLEDOWN

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Ohio Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (X-C P5-Leg A; DD)

Thoroughly nutty assembly of 14 including an Amoss claimant (Dean Martini) and Stidham MDN (Established) that will be stratospheric prices. Using Hough's dirt returnee South Bend prominently as well as widely drawn Storm the Court & Unrighteous (B's/C's) in Cross Country P5..

Most Likely: #1 Dean Martini 20-1 WON ($31.20)
Best Value: #12 Established 30-1 12th
Next Best: #4 Lebda 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Sprawl 15-1 5th

All Stakes Cross Country P5 Grid:

TDN 8th: 1-4-12 (A), 6-10 (B), 13-14 (C)
BEL 9th: 1-6 (A), 5-8 (B), 2-3 (C)
CD 10th: 5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
BEL 10: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
CD 11th: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), 1-4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x1x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (1/4,7,8/5/4/10) Paid $1,079.50 (A-B-A-A-A)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 70th Vagrancy (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Come Dancing returns to sprinting after noble (if foolhardy) Apple Blossom try. Working like a crazy horse (:57.4?!), but she's a short price and there are options. And note a lack of true lead speed beyond Jakarta..

Most Likely: #1 Royal Charlotte 7-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Come Dancing 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Jakarta 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Chalon 5-2 6th

8th: 77th New York (G2), F&M-4+, 10f-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Call Me Love 9-5 4th
Next Best: #7 Mean Mary 7-2 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #3 My Sister Nat 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Valiance 15-1 5th

9th: 42nd True North (G2), 4+6.5f (X-C P5-Leg B, P3, DD)

Promises Fulfilled SCR'D returns in similar fashion to Come Dancing: At a low price and in uncertain form. Wait for It SCR'D is consistent, cuts back and figures to sit a nice trip behind the speed with Franco..

Most Likely: # #1 Diamond King 5-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Stan the Man 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Yorkton 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Firenze Fire 2-1 WON ($4.20)

10th: Just a Game (G1), F&M4+, 1m-T (X-C P5-Leg D, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Newspaperofrecord 8-5 WON ($4.10)
Next Best: #6 Uni 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Regal Glory 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Got Stormy SCR

11th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-Inner Turf

Most Likely: #6 Sir Chubby 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Winning Factor 6-1 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #9 Montauk Summer 6-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Brice 7-2 4th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-5 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
8: 1 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
9: 1-5-6 (A), 2-3-8 (B), - (C)
10: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 1 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
9: 1-2-3-5-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-6-9 (A), - (B), 8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 1x6x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (6,7/4,7,8/4/3,13) Paid $31.25 (A-A-A-A)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/NC, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Just Might 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Smart Remark 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Wellabled 3-1 WON ($15.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Holiday Stone 6-1 9th

8th: 117th Bashford Manor (G3), 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Not sure how they beat the favorite if he runs back to debut..

Most Likely: #6 Cazadero 8-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #3 Gatsby 4-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Hulen 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Herd Immunity 9-2 3rd

9th: 45th Fleur de Lis (G2), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Serengeti Empress 2-1: As BEL match demonstrated, pace rates edge.. 4th
Next Best: #5 Midnight Bisou 3-5: Respect fully, but will have to run down quality foe.. WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #7 Motion Emotion 15-1: Finally moved forward for Baltas last out.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Go Google Yourself 8-1: Keeps good company and always tries hard.. 6th

10th: 38th Stephen Foster (G2), 4+, 9f (X-C P5-Leg C, DD)

While there's several here within stiking distance of him, it's hard to find a vulnerability in Tom's d'Etat..

Most Likely: #5 Tom's d'Etat 1-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #2 Pirate's Punch 15-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Fearless 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 By My Standards 5-2 2nd

11th: 50th Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (X-C P5-Leg E, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Crystal Cliffs 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Stunning Sky 20-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Harvey's Lil Goil 5-1 WON ($24.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Micheline 8-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #1 Dominga 5-1 5th

P5 Grid:

7: 3-5-6-9 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
8: 6 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-5 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
11: 3-5-6-10 (A), 1-4-7-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x2x1x8 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x1x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16

$0.50 Pick-5 (6/6/5/5/10) Paid $298.60 (A-A-A-A-A)

P4 Grid:

8: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5 (A), 2 (B), 1-6 (C)
11: 3-5-6-10 (A), 1-4-7-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x8 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/5/5/10) Paid $45.35 (A-A-A-A)

Good luck!
Steve