Derby Trail Forums - 10/12: Keeneland (6th-10th; X-C P5)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Shackadelic 10-1: Half to Proforma totes KEE gate bullet.. 11th
Next Best: #4 Day Dayenu 3-1: Ran well in debut after clunky start.. 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Take Charge Patti 20-1: Adds Lasix in 2nd start; May get lead.. 7th
Super Add: #3 Loaded 12-1: SW dam was fast early; Rusty a KEE assassin.. 2nd

7th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Tough read. Fast Boat's last was career best, but he's always regressed off big efforts. Carotari tanked in the KY Downs G3, but it was his first time past 5.5f and the undulating course isn't for everyone. Other than the meaningless off/turf experience, I Can Do Anything has never run a bad race for Stan Hough. Peter Miller has clearly had a high opinion of Texas Wedge who's knocked heads with some of the Division's big guns..

Best Value: #2 Carotari 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Texas Wedge 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 I Can Do Anything 5-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Fast Boat 4-1 WON ($8.40)

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Four of the top players here are first off the claim (Driven to Compete, Curate, Conquest Big E, Belle Tapisserie) and 2 more are 2nd/claim (Always a Suspect, Cautious Giant). Within those sets, Eddie Kenneally (Conquest Big E) is stunning 40% 1st/claim with his last 40 for a $2.90 (!) ROI..

Most Likely: #9 Curate 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Conquest Big E 5-1 6th
Best Value: #11 Belle Tapisserie 6-1 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Driven to Compete 8-1 10th

9th: QEII Challenge Cup (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD, Hi-5)

The tendency spots like this is to acquiesce to Chad Brown entrants, but this feels VERY competitive and there is absolutely no pace signed on at all complicating matters. Castle Lady is a serious Godolphin invader and Cafe Americano the most tactical of the Brown runners. McPeek's Prinesa Carolina is forward-going and the Queen's Magnetic Charm is going to overlooked..

Most Likely: #5 Castle Lady 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Princesa Carolina 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Cafe Americano 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Magnetic Charm 12-1 6th

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Club Car 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Getridofwhatailesu 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #12 Nettleton 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 First Wave 5-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Crown Jewel 10-1 10th

P5 Grid:

6: 4-10 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
7: 2-7 (A), 3-10 (B), 4-11 (C)
8: 9-10 (A), 11 (B), 2-4-8 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 6 (B), 3-7-9 (C)
10: 1-4 (A), - (B), 5-7-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

7: 2-7 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
8: 9-10-11 (A), - (B), 2-4-8 (C)
9: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), 3-7-9 (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 5-12 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Perjury Trap 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Starting Over 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Ashaar 3-1 WON ($11.40)
Super Add: #6 Hemlock 7-2 5th

9th: Sands Point (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-IT (DD)

Rosario (42% with Brown barn) will need to motivate lightly raced New and Improved on a timely basis. Note that Souper Escape is going to be isolated on the lead and enters with best last race fig on several barometers..

Most Likely: #5 New and Improved 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #7 Souper Escape 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Olendon 5-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Ledecka 12-1 6th

Cross Country P5 Grid (4:40p ET):

BEL 8: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
KEE 8: 9-10 (A), 11 (B), 2-4-8 (C)
BEL 9: 5-7 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-4-6 (C)
KEE 9: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), 3-7-9 (C)
KEE 10: 1-4 (A), 12 (B), 5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x3x3 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A's: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

Good luck!
Steve