Derby Trail Forums - 8/31: Saratoga (7th-12th); KY Downs (6th-10th)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Fun juvy bunch with 2-1 fave Three Technique the colt to beat, but note several quality players involved including 2nd out Soviet from Pletcher and potentially potent Toner firster Mischief Afoot. Speed comes from Necker Island and Always Misbehaving and expect Wayne O to be pressing. Today not likely the day for him, but regally bred Tapage (Tapit/Hystericaldy) from KMc/Godolphin is likely OK. His half sister Lady Montdore runs 2 hours later in the Glens Falls..

Most Likely: #3 Three Technique 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #7 Soviet 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Mischief Afoot 15-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Necker Island 12-1 3rd

8th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Curious group with surface switches, stretchouts, debuters, et al. Note Pletcher/Wetheimer firster No Word is full brother of highly successful Silentio that Gary Mandella helmed to a bunch of stakes wins and placements..

Best Value: #7 Shamrocket 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 No Word 9-2 WON ($9.10)
Exotics Use: #5 Gear Jockey 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Get Set 5-1 6th

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Hallawallah 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Arrifana 7-2 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #8 Our Circle of Love 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Brucia La Terra 12-1 8th

10th: 24th Glens Falls (G2), F&M-3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Santa Monica 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Mrs Sippy 4-1 WON ($14.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Fools Gold 5-2 6th
Super Add: #9 Get Explicit 5-1 4th

11th: 66th Woodward (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)

As discussed on ATR and noted in the Beat Byk Contest selection, Mongolian Groom comes East after having shown significant improvement over the deep Del Mar surface this summer. Is cutting back from 10f here while adding forward-going Luis Saez and will find the Saratoga main track a paved highway versus what he's been accustomed to at Oceanside. 15-1 in a competitive field..

Best Value: #4 Mongolian Groom 15-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Tom's d'Etat 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Wooderson 12-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Preservationist 7-2 WON ($8.10)

12th: MSW, 3+, 6f

Free Enterprise ran in to buzz saws in Performer & En Why Cee and here, Tolerant & Airtouch provide authentic competition, while Going for Gold might be hustled to get involved by Santana. Really interesting group..

Most Likely: #8 Free Enterprise 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Tolerant 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Airtouch 3-1 WON ($8.30)
Super Add: #3 Going for Gold 15-1 9th

P5 Grid:

8: 1-4-5-7 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 1-3 (A), 8-10 (B), 2-11 (C)
10: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2-9 (C)
11: 4-9 (A), 8 (B), 1-5-7 (C)
12: 8 (A), 4 (B), 5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x3x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 4x2x2x3x1 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

9: 1-3-8 (A), 2-10-11 (B), - (C)
10: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2-9 (C)
11: 4-9 (A), 8 (B), 1-5-7 (C)
12: 4-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (3,9/5/5/5) Paid $328.75 ~ (A/A/C/A) $36

KENTUCKY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Cazadora DNF-Lost rider
Next Best: #11 A J Rock 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #13 Lady Jennevieve 4-1 2nd-DQ'd from WIN
Super Add: #1 Wexx 10-1 WON ($13.20)-Up via DQ

7th: One Dreamer-R, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Hanalei Moon 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #9 Limari 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Classy Act 9-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Smart Emma 6-1 7th

8th: Tourist Mile, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Hembree 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Parlor 12-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Mr Cub 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Next Shares 7-2 7th
Super Add: #1 Snapper Sinclair 8-1 WON ($22.80)

9th: Juvenile Fillies, 2yo-F, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #12 Fly So Pretty 7-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Jezebel's Kitten 9-2 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Lemon Scat 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Ask Bailey 8-1 2nd

10th: Juvenile, 2yo, 1m-T

Best Value: #4 Night Time 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Are You Kitten Me 4-1 11th
Exotics Use: #12 Peace Achieved 6-1 WON ($12.00)
Super Add: #1 Memorable 10-1 5th

P5 Grid:

6: 7-11 (A), 13 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
7: 7-9 (A), 4-10 (B), 3-8 (C)
8: 4-5-9 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), - (B), 1-11 (C)
10: 4-5 (A), - (B), 1-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

7: 7-9 (A), 4-10 (B), 3-8 (C)
8: 4-5-9 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), 1-11 (B), - (C)
10: 4-5-12 (A), - (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/1/7/12) Paid $2,066.10 ~ A/C/A/A ($36)

Good luck!
Steve