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-   -   4/6: AQU (7th-11th); KEE (6th-10th); SA (7th-11th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66021)

Kasept 04-05-2019 09:03 PM

4/6: AQU (7th-11th); KEE (6th-10th); SA (7th-11th)
 
AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: Excelsior (G3), 4+, 9f (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Monongahela 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Hit It Once More 15-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Life's a Parlay 4-1 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #1 Nicodemus 5-1 4th


8th: Gazelle (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Positive Spirit 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Proud Emma 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Always Shopping 3-1 WON ($9.90)
Exotics Use: #3 Off Topic 5-1 3rd


9th: Carter H. (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 World of Trouble 1-1 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #7 Honor Up 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Sir Ballantine 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Vino Rosso 5-2 4th


10th: Wood Memorial (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Final Jeopardy 8-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Outshine 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Tax 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Tacitus 5-2 WON ($7.20)


11th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m

Best Value: #11 Sea Foam 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 House Limit 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Dark N Cloudy 7-2 11th
Super Add: #2 Vincento 10-1 6th


NYRA Bets P5 Grid:

7: 3 (A), - (B), 1-4-8 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 2-3-5 (B), - (C)
9: 8 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
10: 1-2-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-7-11 (A), 2-8 (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x1x4x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 1x2x1x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

8: 4-5-6 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
9: 8 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
10: 1-2-5-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-7 (C)
11: 5-7-11 (A), 2-8 (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: Commonwealth (G3), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

This is a ridiculous group, so fire away. Pace looks molten lava hot..

Best Value: #10 Runaway Ghost 15-1 12th
Next Best: #13 Warrior's Club 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Uno Mas Modelo 20-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Copper Town SCR
Hi-5 Play: #6 Limousine Liberal 3-1 3rd


7th: Shakertown (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Imprimis 6-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #13 Angaston 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Disco Partner 5-2 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Will Call 6-1 5th


8th: Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (X-C P5, P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Cross Country P5 starts here..

Best Value: #6 Late Night Pow Wow 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #9 Shamrock Rose 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Amy's Challenge 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Spiced Perfection 7-2 WON ($11.00)


9th: Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

SCR Feedback who runs in Sunday's Beaumont..

Best Value: #7 Bell's the One 15-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Restless Rider 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Jaywalk 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #2 Chocolate Kisses 5-1 6th


10th: Blue Grass (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Win Win Win 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Vekoma 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #11 So Alive 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Signalman 5-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #9 Sir Winston 15-1 7th


Cross Country P5 Grid:

KEE 8-Madison: 6-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 3-8 (C)
AQU 9-Carter: 8 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
KEE 9-Ashland: 6-7 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
AQU 10-Wood: 1-2-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
KEE 10-BluGrs: 2-8-11 (A), 3-9-10 (B), 1-6-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x2x4x6 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x1x2x4x3 = 48 x .50 = $24


All Stakes P5 Grid:

6: 8-10-13 (A), 1-2-6 (B), 4-5-11 (C)
7: 11 (A), - (B), 3-6-13 (C)
8: 6-9 (A), - (B), 3-4-5-8 (C)
9: 6-7 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
10: 2-8 (A), 3-11 (B), 6-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x2x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x1x2x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


All Stakes P4 Grid:

7: 11 (A), - (B), 3-6-13 (C)
8: 6-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 3-8 (C)
9: 2-4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-8-11 (A), 3-6-9 (B), 1-10-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x2x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Lightly raced sophs on the turf with lots of seasonal/regional debuters involved. Sibling strength on display with One Bad Boy a half to MSW Ms Bad Behavior, Time Is Now a half to Weemissfrankie and firster M Town Gem kin to La Coronel. North American bow by Proud Pedro lures Prat..

Most Likely: #5 One Bad Boy 7-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 M Town Gem 12-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Proud Pedro 4-1 2nd-Up via DQ
Exotics Use: #3 Polar 8-1 11th


8th: Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

2yo Champion Game Winner set for best after solid Plan B photo loss to Omaha Beach in Rebel. Nolo Contesto surprised by Roadster in March, but can turn tables on him today with move to heavy handed Talamo from finesse stylings of Rosario. Based on morning efforts, (and Dan Ward notations on ATR), Instagrand appears to have moved forward out of Gotham. Question to answer is how effective is he going to be going 2 turns? Roadster came back with sharp 3yo debut and is dangerous 'other Baffert'..

Most Likely: #6 Game Winner 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Nolo Contesto 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Instagrand 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Roadster 5-2 WON ($8.20)


9th: Providencia (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Colonial Creed 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Lakerball 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Lady Prancealot 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Truffalino 10-1 6th


10th: Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 10f (DD, Hi-5)

Has all the makings of an epic heavyweight bout between McKinzie & Gift Box. Prime Attraction will set the pace and can take them a long way. Campaign, bred for voyage by Curlin out of a Dynaformer mare, will be waiting in the wings and merits back-up inclusion should top pair engage in toll-taking duel..

Most Likely: #4 Gift Box 6-5 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #1 McKinzie 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Campaign 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Prime Attraction 5-1 5th


11th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 The Hunted 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Rumpus Cat 4-1 5th
Best Value: #2 United 15-1 WON ($32.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Inscom 6-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #10 King Caymus 20-1 9th


Rainbow P6 ~ Force Out ~ Grid:

6: 6-7-9 (A), 2-5-8 (B), 4 (C)
7: 2-5 (A), - (B), 3-11 (C)
8: 3-6 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
9: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), 3-7-9 (C)
10: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
11: 3 (A), 7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x3x2x2 = 288 x .20 = $57.60
All A's: 3x2x2x3x2x2 = 72 x .20 = $14.40
C plays: $4.80 + $14.40 + $14.40 + $14.40 + $14.40 = $62.40


P5 Grid:

7: 2-5 (A), - (B), 3-11 (C)
8: 6 (A), 1-3-5 (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), 3-7-9 (C)
10: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
11: 3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


All Stakes P4 Grid:

8: 3-6 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), 3-7-9 (C)
10: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
11: 3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 04-06-2019 08:49 AM

AQU SCR/CHG'S

KEE SCR/CHG'S

SA SCR/CHG'S

knickslions2 04-06-2019 10:33 AM

Good luck Steve. Our picks are really close so I’ll feel bad for ya 😀

Kasept 04-06-2019 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1124412)
Good luck Steve. Our picks are really close so I’ll feel bad for ya 😀

:D

Tom.. Going to be a great day coast to coast! Let's get lucky..

atolunch 04-06-2019 11:38 AM

Thanks as always and best of luck today.

Please double check the 9th at Santa Anita. I believe Lakerball is #4, you have listed as #5 in write up and in your verticals.

Here's to a monster prep Sat. Let's keep the Byk train a rollin!!

ninetoone 04-06-2019 11:52 AM

I don't post opinions on here too often, but I'll be taking a big swing at Hoffa's Union to win the Wood. Just too much to resist for me not to take the bait. Popped at Laurel with a good number, which is pretty rare, picks up an underrated jockey in Davis (IMO), a questionable field, trainer upgrade...etc. etc. I'm taking the bait to the bottom (and probably an underlay) and I'll live with the result! Figured I'd better post in advance just in case :)

ninetoone 04-06-2019 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone (Post 1124421)
I don't post opinions on here too often, but I'll be taking a big swing at Hoffa's Union to win the Wood. Just too much to resist for me not to take the bait. Popped at Laurel with a good number, which is pretty rare, picks up an underrated jockey in Davis (IMO), a questionable field, trainer upgrade...etc. etc. I'm taking the bait to the bottom (and probably an underlay) and I'll live with the result! Figured I'd better post in advance just in case :)

Disregard...nothing to see here! Had to take a shot!


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